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A short mention in Eurointelligence this morning:

German nationalisation law draws fire

"Any economic debate in Germany is ideologically first and foremost, and it should therefore not be surprising that the discussion about bank nationalisation has widened into a debate about the future of the market economy, which the opponents now see acutely threatened after the government agreed on a law to allow nationalisation in specific case. The only case where the governments wants to apply the new law, is Hypo Real Estate, the real estate speculator, whose capital base has been eroded. But critics fear that the law would open the floodgates to nationalisation of many banks."

 http://www.eurointelligence.com/article.581+M5eecf1d8a19.0.html

Any thoughts? Any Germans here at ET? Back in October, Herr Finance Minister Steibruk made a comment that "state-run banks will likely play a big role in the future [because of the current crisis]". As opponents of the law fear, this may be opening that door...

by glacierpeaks (glacierpeaks@comcast.net) on Thu Feb 19th, 2009 at 03:16:31 AM EST
State run banks already now play a big role. Sparkassen, Landesbanken and the KfW make up a third of German banking or so. And judged by the Landesbank performance, I doubt that state owned banks will do better than private banks.
Postbank is privatised and sold to Deutsche Bank, but the biggest shareholder of the Post is still the federal gov't. And the Post got 10% stake in Deutsche (Germanies biggest bank, balance 2007 2.020 trillion Euro) for the deal.
The second largest German bank, the newly fusioned Commerzbank with Dresdener bank (together a balance of 1.1 trillion) has now a 25% federal gov't stake, as Commerzbank couldn't afford the fusion and needed federal money.
The third largest bank is already LB-BW with a balance of 0.44 trillion.

For the law. Yes, it is ridiculous, a bank that needs public money to survive obviously has zero value, and therefore nationalisation doesn't take away anything from anybody. But beside every economic debate being ideological, in Germany every economic debate is dominated by totally uninformed people.

I doubt, the law will actually be used, and if, for sure in exactly one case, the one of HRE. The only other system relevant bank, in which the state doesn't already have controlling share is Deutsche, and that bank is too big to be nationalised. You really don't want their liabilities as national debt, when it turns out, they have accounting as good as Lehman's. Then better a normal insolvency.

In general it maybe more interesting, if the goal is, to keep all those stakes in the banks, or if in a couple of years everything is privatised again. That's not a done deal yet.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers

by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 19th, 2009 at 09:24:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For German speakers:
Interview with Mr. Flowers, biggest shareholder of HRE.

Der Amerikaner ist die Orchidee unter den Menschen
Volker Pispers
by Martin (weiser.mensch(at)googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 19th, 2009 at 01:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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