Noise constraints dictate that unless they have a clear emergency (like a torpedo fired at them), they move real slow, turn real slow (like: take 50 nmi to make a U turn), and move real tricky (like: you don't actually make a U turn, you make an elaborate movement which looks like you change you mind six times in the process, with five different speeds all along, just in case someone was listening, the reason being that if you make a simple geometrical trajectory and someone hypothesises it, he can infer from the doppler data on your noise spectrum, all you spectrum characteristics - know exact speed, so get to the original unshifted frequencies in your spectrum, etc, etc...)
This is usually sumed up by "fart slow". Very boring also. The only place with some action on board a boomer, is the collection of porn tapes in the mess.
So regarding the present fuck-up, the answer is: save a detection of torpedo launch, or a very clear signal of constant angle (unlikely in bad weather from such subs), the doctrine was to keep listening whatever anyone had heard (or not), while globally going straight forward, so if the encounter was by change on a collision course in 2D, it was a goner from the start. No more complicated than that. Pierre
When you say 1/23000 yrs, that would be with one sub each ? or for one given sub with two subs per navy ? then it's 1-(1-1/23k)^4 for all four subs ? Pierre
US boomers are all in the pacific now. russians are in the arctic along their own coastline. the chinese have only one 20-yrs old boomer, and there are so many us hk stalking it when it sets sails, that its position may be leaking to google placemarks near real time nowadays. This incident could only ever happen between france and uk in the present setup of strategic forces. Pierre
Now the following computation: average speed: 4knots = 4 nmi/hour ~ 7.5 km/hour effective "collision" section = 20 meters (ship breadth, all @600m depth) area combing speed: 0.15 sq km / hour, or over 3 sq km / day.
Total patrol area in the north atlantic + transit lanes = a few million sq km. Lets say there are constantly about 4 boomers in there (only boomers count, they dodge their own HK because they know where they are). That's two boomers of a different country for each boomer of first country (let's forget non existent russians, and assume boomers of one country are more or less boxed).
What is the average time between intercepts considering the entire fleet of 4 subs ? (we assume even if they detect the encounter, they don't deviate from current trajectory) Pierre
I get to about 100 000 days on average between collisions, which is 273 years. Not such a large number, but still, it comes a bit early when such patrols have been going on since "only" 40 years. Now, of course a little bit of "lets veer just a little bit toward this weird noise so we get a clearer signal" might help a lot in bringing the numbers down (boomers are not supposed to do this, but you know, it gets so boring down there...) Pierre
