When you say 1/23000 yrs, that would be with one sub each ? or for one given sub with two subs per navy ? then it's 1-(1-1/23k)^4 for all four subs ? Pierre
US boomers are all in the pacific now. russians are in the arctic along their own coastline. the chinese have only one 20-yrs old boomer, and there are so many us hk stalking it when it sets sails, that its position may be leaking to google placemarks near real time nowadays. This incident could only ever happen between france and uk in the present setup of strategic forces. Pierre