His theory of martial law works well within the Bush administration mindset, but I do not see it with the Obama administration mindset. I think the Panarins of this world would like to see another U.S. civil war. I think we Americans will disappoint him.
His triggers for a U.S. civil war were economic decline, which is happening, mass immigration, which isn't happening because of the economic decline, and moral degradation. Now I don't know specifically what he thinks moral decline is, but I'm guessing it is gays and god related and not state-sanctioned torture and the fraud economy.
All in all, the U.S. is more likely to start another foreign war than a domestic one. The danger for U.S. collapse comes more from the drug war in Mexico spilling over the border than from the economic meltdown.
I think he's a fruitcake.
If the US was going to fall apart, the best opportunity would have been for Bush/Cheney/Rummy to let YET ANOTHER terrorist strike hit America LIKE THEY DID KNOWINGLY ON 9-11 (I say again!) and then try to completely shut down all US freedoms. That would have done it. In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
Also Panarin thinks in a post-collapse U.S., Alaska will revert to Russia.
There are rumours - there are always rumours - that he's Putin's pet propaganda creature. So this would be more wishful thinking and suggestion than reality-based reporting.