One of the first of many polls of voter preferences in Italy shows the collapse of the Democratic Party (PD). It has lost a third of its electorate in a year. If the elections were held today the PD would garner no more than 22%. Other parties that were part of the previous left electoral coalition have gained ground, notably Di Pietro's Italia dei Valori Party that has doubled consensus, now at 8%. The far left remains divided, although a coalition of some of the micro-realities could garner 6%. Another 3% would be lost under the threshold. The "centrist" party, UDC, has gained a few percentage points to nearly 8%. The rightwing coalition continues to enjoy popularity with Berlusconi's personal political entity, the PdL, at over 36%. The racist Lega Nord party has grown slightly to 9%.

This is all tentative, since a new law in the making has yet to be passed. It will determine strategies and tactics that may alter the present situation. But then the majority's bill is also tactical, very much a part of the process, just as the Porcellum electoral law was in 2006. However, it is unlikely to greatly alter the weight of the two blocks: a solid rightwing sweep with a fragmented left bleating about local victories in far-flung corners.