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No, our savior will be avian influenza, which will play the part that the plague did in previous centuries. By significantly reducing the population, we will move towards a seller's market for labor.

"There is a real possibility that the virus will mutate and become easily transmissible between humans. If this occurs we could see the start of a new influenza pandemic."

The WHO and FAO said that, while it is still relatively difficult for humans to be infected by the H5N1 virus, about 50 percent of those infected die.
"The avian influenza virus is also not currently able to spread easily between humans, but influenza viruses are known for their ability to change quickly and can become more adapted to humans with dire consequences," the statement said.

On Saturday a woman died from the H5N1 strain of the virus in Vietnam's first avian influenza fatality of the year. An eight-year-old girl, infected in January, has since recovered while a third victim is still in a Hanoi hospital.

http://www.macaudailytimesnews.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=23629&Itemi d=32

[asdf's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology]

by asdf on Thu Mar 5th, 2009 at 12:17:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There seems to be a trade off between infection rates and mortality. My guess is that mortality is high when the virus action is genetically very specific, which is why famiilies often go down together, but neighbours don't.

Not that a highly infectious variant with 'only' 10% or 20% mortality wouldn't be a terrible thing.

But the early variants of H5N1 were showing 80% mortality even with world class intensive care. If that's down to 50% after a couple of years, that's almost encouraging.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Mar 5th, 2009 at 08:35:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ThatBritGuy:
There seems to be a trade off between infection rates and mortality.
The most virulent strands die off because they kill the hosts too quickly to infect other hosts.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 5th, 2009 at 08:36:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
However, the 1918 influenza episode infected about half of the global population. If the mortality rate is 50% and the infection rate is 50%, 25% of the global population dies. This is comparable to the effect of the plague in Europe.
by asdf on Thu Mar 5th, 2009 at 08:59:12 AM EST
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