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  • The choice of Bajnai was not the selecting gremium's first choice: that was the minister of agriculture József Gráf, who is said to be popular within the party (he is also one of the least unpopular within the entire population); but despite getting more votes, he delared he doesn't want the post.

  • Media reports about Bajnai's plans: a spending cut of 600 billion Forints (€2 billion) in social budgets and pensions... as well as decreased subsidies for the state railways... It is a question however, that even if he would get to be PM, he could execute this insanity.

  • Meanwhile, the battle is on within the leadership of the liberal SzDSz, on whether they should support Bajnai -- with the opponents still said to be in majority. (Their reason is not stated in reports.) The twist is: SzDSz is unlikely to wish for new elections, but the Socialists said that they won't bring in a second candidate if they fail with Bajnai.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 05:27:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What exactly is Hungary's problem that
  1. nobody wants to be in charge of solving
  2. those who try propose outrageous social cuts.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 05:34:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
nobody wants to be in charge of solving

That's not the point. The point, for expert candidates who waved off, is getting parliamentary support and not turning a mere tool of MSzP's struggle for survival. (As for Gráf, he is really a desperation candidate: he doesn't havew much clue about or ambitions regarding things outside agriculture.)

those who try propose outrageous social cuts.

That's the only game in town, for the political elites, only the packaging differs. (Thougfh for Fidesz, that includes praising Obama's programme.) They are clueless and uninspired, even though there are domestic voices advocating deficit spending and calling austerity programmes an idiocy. A(t least a) Kirchner would be needed but there aint'.

The problem this is supposed to solve is of course a "recreation of trust on the markets", by complying with the IMF demand of keeping the budget deficit under 3% of GDP (a GDP which is now expected to fall 4-6% instead of 3.5). (This IMF demand is at least loosened relative to the original demand of near-zero deficits.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 05:49:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the IMF has adopted the Stability and Growth Pact, now?

They could always raise the marginal tax rate...

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 05:51:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The IMF originally wanted the government to keep to or go below its original long-term plan of 2.6% deficit for 2009, even despite the global crisis. The loosening came after a visit by DSK to Budapest in January, and gave the further worsened external conditions as justification -- I guess the similarity with the Growth and Stability Pact is pure coincidence.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 06:04:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding, methinks this new deficit cuts radicalism (Bajnai's plans go well beyond what's projected to be needed to keep below 3% even if GDP shrinks 6%) goes beyond the IMF, and wants to assuage perceived even stronger demands from "the market".

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 06:07:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there are domestic voices advocating deficit spending

I mean, counter-cyclical, crisis-time deficit spending.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Mar 29th, 2009 at 06:01:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Minutes past midnight today, after three days of marathon talks that descended into a comedy, the Socialists' candidate, Gordon Bajnai seems to have gained a majority in parliament, consisting of most Socialist and liberal MPs.

The decision hinged on getting the endorsement of the liberal SzDSz's split leading body. It is unclear why half of them resisted for long: problems with the person of the candidate (he is a personal friend and former business partner of SzDSz's recently ousted chairman), credibility (SzDSz originally set Thursday night as a deadline for MSzP, then insisted on an expert government), wanting new elections, or something else.

At any rate, while the liberals' leading body voted 7-5 in favour of Bajnai at the end, SzDSz's parliamentary faction gave a much more reassuring 13-4 approval. If not too many Socialists rebel against the neoliberal saviour, that will be enough. So Gyurcsány presented him in Parliament this morning.

The neoliberal saviour did not offer much new specifics about his programme, but he is playing hardball:

  • with the Socialist and liberal MPs: he is said to have demanded MPs to personally sign off his programme, to secure their support;
  • with voters: he says his political life will not extend beyond the crisis [management] -- so he won't be braked by election considerations;
  • with the population at large: he says every family will suffer.

Gah...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Mar 30th, 2009 at 08:21:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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