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I saw that graph earlier, and wanted to link it to this story, but couldn't remember where I had read it. The shadow banking system is exactly what my post is about: a way to avoid the rules, and this is exactly what we need to kill: the ability of the shadow system to contaminate the "real" one.

Now, it's too late, as you note. which means that the government has to grab the whole industry, take the bits of infrastructure that are vital, put it in a shape that can survive, call that the utility bit, regulate it stringently, and let the rest to its sorry fate.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 11:18:28 AM EST
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This is out of "the Government's" hands. There are trillions of dollars (and pounds and euros) worth of financial claims out there with the creditors of the US, EU, UK etc. The steps you outline may well be correct, but are based upon an assumption that they would be accepted by creditor nations.

How many Barrels and Btu's has the G7? The G7's creditors are not just going to press the reset button if there is a viable alternative, and I happen to believe that there actually is.

I think that the era of the middleman is over: Humpty Dumpty simply cannot be put back together again. We need a 21st Century solution to a 21st century problem, and I am quite sure this is already emerging.

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 11:43:07 AM EST
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These particular creditors didn't invest their money in government guaranteed instruments. The problem is not that the creditors might not accept the default of financial institutions. It's that they are likely not to put their new (or remaining) cash into Western financial institutions.
by vladimir on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 12:01:38 PM EST
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vladimir:
It's that they are likely not to put their new (or remaining) cash into Western financial institutions.

Exactly.

Why should they accept $, € and £ in exchange for something with actual worth?

"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky

by ChrisCook (cojockathotmaildotcom) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 12:05:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because:

  1. They lack imagination
  2. These are the currencies they can still buy things in
  3. These are the currencies dividends are paid in
  4. If you want rice, you can't buy it from a hedge fund - you can only buy a first or second derivative bet on the sums involved in a possible rice deal, which you can't usually cook in a microwave and eat

In spite of all expectations, people still trust the Western financial industry more than that of most other countries.

This makes no sense - but since most of us live in the West, I'd suggest that perhaps it's better than the alternative.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 07:12:01 PM EST
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because your money is still treated worse in other venues (it's confiscated in cruder ways, let's say).

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:09:48 AM EST
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True but reality has a way of biting back.

Pretty near everything on the Eurasian continent east of the Urals has no hope of feeding itself.  Crash the global financial system and the global trade in coarse grains and other foodstuffs crashes.

by ATinNM on Sat Mar 7th, 2009 at 12:59:12 PM EST
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