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Well, you could have rented instead. That would have been the way to realise the bubble windfall. And push the overvalued asset on some other sucker, of course...

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 05:59:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In a perfect market, possibly, if I'd guessed the exact moment to get out and get back in again.

In fact, however, I'd have to pay tax on the income from the released and reinvested capital, while paying my rent out of after tax income, which would be a year-on-year loss for the period I was out of the housing market.

And that assumes a "normal" rate of return on my investment.  With interest rates of 0.5% I would be out-of-pocket by most of the rent each month.

And I might even have invested the capital in equities.  Gulp.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:18:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess it depends on how much you think your house is overvalued. If you would have a € 1000/month rent on the rental market, and you think your house is overvalued by € 100000, then it would make sense as long as the housing market would correct itself in less than eight years, even if you just took the money and put it in the Bank of Serta. Three years if you were paying 60 % income tax on the realised gain. Assuming, of course, that you were right about the true value of the house, and neglecting the costs of moving, and all the other simplifications. So call it two years, to be on the safe side - if you could predict the crash to within one year (plus/minus one gives two years), you could have cashed out.

Assuming, of course, that you want to treat your home as an object of speculation. Me, personally, I wouldn't want to do that, but then again, I don't particularly want to own a house in the first place...

But in any event, equity in your house isn't money - it only becomes money when you use it to collateralise a loan.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:30:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But in any event, equity in your house isn't money - it only becomes money when you use it to collateralise a loan.

I think that was my point in the first place  :)

However, I'd been predicting the housing crash for at least four years, so I think we could agree that my punditry skills aren't quite tight enough to speculate with the roof over my children's heads.  ;)

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
if you'd have promised them ice cream, im sure they would have adjusted to sleeping under a hedge for a year. ;)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:04:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are you kidding?  You should have seen my daughter's face when I admitted I couldn't be sure her mobile phone would work on holiday this summer...

Well, maybe a hedge with a charging point and wifi.  Or double chocolate ice cream.

by Sassafras on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:28:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've a friend who lives on the side of a hill in a broken down bus, running everything from solar panels. so it can be done.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 07:55:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Kids today are spoiled rotten.

When I was a kid we had to walk across the house to answer the telephone.  

Barefoot.

In the snow.

Uphill, both ways.

by ATinNM on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 10:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True.

Well, presumably it would have been monetised by selling it, because the other dude would have had to take out a mortgage on the full value (unless he had some cash stashed aside for some reason) :-P

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 08:17:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Over the last 12 months gold dropped off its peak by around 25% and is now almost up to the level it was at a year ago - and it seems to be climbing.

Obviously that's not as profitable as a building society account, especially one of the higher paying ones, but it's more secure than equities.

It's probably one of the ironies of the situation that over the last year a basic ISA will have been the most profitable of all possible investment vehicles.

Some hedge funds will have done better, as usual, but others will have done worse.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Mar 8th, 2009 at 06:37:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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