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Economics and Politics - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com
So Citigroup is profitable because investors think it's failing, while Morgan Stanley is losing money because investors think it will survive. I am not making this up.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 12:23:28 PM EST
Economics and Politics - Paul Krugman Blog - NYTimes.com

Let's say this slowly: the Bush administration wanted to use 9/11 as a pretext to invade Iraq, even though Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11. So it tortured people to make them confess to the nonexistent link.

There's a word for this: it's evil.



Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 12:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I heard this yesterday.  The torture techniques we were using were modeled after the ones used by communist regimes to get false confessions out of people.  What am I missing?

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 01:44:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just need to make sure you don't think communist regimes invented the use of torture to get false confessions out of people.  Waterboarding was around during the Spanish Inquisition.  

Just sayin'...

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky

by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 01:48:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well Waterboarding and Electric tortures mainly came from the French colonial service,(Who taught it to the Nazis by the way) and isolation and stress positions came from the British.

No one is especially innocent here.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 01:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure people have been torturing one another and sadists have been inventing new ways to do it since the beginning of human history  

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky
by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 01:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes but the legal necessity not to leave marks so it can be denied by governments is a not-so-new feature. previous to this governments did it, and were open about it, because it wasn't seen as being morally wrong.

If you want an Ancient greek example, if torture was applied it was applied as part of the legal system to a mans slaves.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:06:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be Torture and Truth by Page DuBois?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 04:20:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No Torture and Democracy by Darius Rejali

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 06:42:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
DuBois' 1991 essay is practically dedicated to torture in ancient Greece. I wonder if Rejali cites the essay.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 01:29:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, in a 40 page bibliography, thats there.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 08:23:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks! I pulled down my copy and re-read some of it today. Is Torture and Democracy worthwhile?
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 04:08:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very worthwhile, of the shelf full of books on that sort of subject, its almost always the first one I turn to when I have questions.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 04:19:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe even since before the beginning of history.

You don't have to be literate to torture.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 03:44:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My placing the word "communist" in the sentence simply repeated the original source.  My point is that we were using techniques modeled on other techniques known to generate bullshit, not facts.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:03:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is interesting.  Which torture techniques get true confessions and which get false confessions?  


"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky
by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:14:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From my vast experience in this area, ...

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ok from my limited understanding of it, torture in the USSR, well, it depended on the era, but was largely used for intimidation (to prevent and quell dissent and subversion) and to obtain useful information.  If this information obtained in a false confession was untrue, it wasn't terribly helpful.  There was no need, say, to get prisoners to back up your story about a plot against the Soviet union, because, unlike Iraq, the US obviously did have weapons of mass destruction, and were aiming them at Russia.  America really did hate their way of life and everything it stood for.  I think they also tortured Nazis and other nationals that really were plotting against them.  And undoubtedly were paranoid and tortured totally innocent people.  So far as domestic incursions went, the laws were constructed in such a way that if they wanted to get you on something, they could.  No false confession required, because everything was so open to interpretation.  They were very philosophical that way.  

While the US was using torture to justify their agenda, the Soviets used their agenda to justify torture.

It just seems like an inadequate comparison to me.

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky

by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:36:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope I'm not comming across as some kind of apologist.  For the record I am without exception opposed to the use of torture for any reason.

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky
by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:42:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with torture isn't that there are techniques that give you more truth than others. Rather it is that with all of them is that you get both truth and lies and you cannot tell the difference. The ticking bomb fails because if you are told to cut the blue wire you cannot be sure the information you have is better or worse than guessing.

But that's by the by, as Paul Begala said "We -- our country executed Japanese soldiers who water- boarded American POWs. We executed them for the same crime that we are now committing ourselves." the final determining factor is that it isn't what the tortured person says about your country, it's what torturing them says about your country.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"The problem with torture isn't that there are techniques that give you more truth than others. Rather it is that with all of them is that you get both truth and lies and you cannot tell the difference."

Zactly.

"Talking nonsense is the sole privilege mankind possesses over the other organisms." -Dostoevsky

by poemless on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 02:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The expert interrogators seem to be see their jobs more as detective work - correlating many different accounts for useful information.

I'm sure it's tedious and difficult and requires an exceptional memory for both facts and nuance. But it seems to be the only way to get high quality intelligence, rather than noise and screaming.

Of course some people like noise and screaming, so this approach won't interest them.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 03:33:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Expert interrogators don't use torture- nor need it- to gather evidence.

Torture belongs to the category of Glory of which absolute truth is a corollary. Absolute Truth has nothing in common with factual truths. "Evidence" gathered through confessions elicited under torture is beside the point. The point of torture is to assert absolute power over raw life, to negate rights, identity, diversity and equality, in the name of Glory.

 

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 05:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh and because there was no real necessity for Soviet interogators to use clean deniable techniques, the techniques weren't developed by the  Russians, so they can't have been copied from them.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 06:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That confused the shit out of me.  Would someone mind explaining how Citi makes a profit while MS takes a loss in this situation?

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 01:48:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL, read the comments!

FT Alphaville » Blog Archive » Banking credit catch-22 in action?

  1. taxloss Apr 22 14:43 Is this the counter-cyclicality we were promised?
  2. ! Report The Itch Apr 22 14:26 So, you can buy an egg for 7 cents and sell it at 5 for a profit.
  3. ! Report Tears for Tier 1 Apr 22 14:17 I keep dreaming that I'm holding a fish, and I can't afford to pay for it.


Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 04:07:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holding To Account
Own Credit CVA

Now what about Citi? It has the same pricing model as GS, which calculates a FV of $1m. So surely C recognises a financial liability of $1m? No. Again, accounting standards differ slightly in wording, but in principal the fair value of a liability is the price at which an entity could extinguish any future obligations, in an arm's length transaction. I.e. "What price would a counterparty be willing to cancel/settle the trade at now. Well, we have seen above that GS, and probably the rest of the market, would accept $700k to cancel the deal. So, Citi gets to write the liability down to $700k. In accounting terms:

DR Financial Liabilities $300k

CR Principal Transactions $300k

Yes, you have read it correctly - Citi has made a profit of $300k as a result of becoming less creditworthy!!! In accounting/industry spreak, Citi has made an Own Credit CVA of $300k.
Read the whole post.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 04:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's what "mark-to-what-you-feel-like" is all about: use the rules in full when they are to your advantage, and relax them when they aren't.

Some banks have actually been buying up their own bonds (for amounts less than their full face value), so it's not completely cut off from reality.

And think of when companies make losses - they suddenly get to pay less taxes, which ends up increasing their net profit is they can deduct these losses from significant earlier (or book provisions for later) gains...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2009 at 04:30:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris:
Some banks have actually been buying up their own bonds (for amounts less than their full face value), so it's not completely cut off from reality.
So these counterintuitive profits from deteriorating creditworthiness are an instance of overhedging.

These accounting rules attempt to make balance sheets neutral to credit risk. But if the market overprices credit risk the CVA correction overshoots and you get a net profit from deteriorating credit.

Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Apr 23rd, 2009 at 04:49:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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