On the wider political issue raised by Drew/Helen/Twankie what I find absolutely remarkable is how good a leader Obama is considering the political culture he comes from. The more I read/view US media the more I am reminded of a Deutschland Uber Alles of a previous era - an absolute xenophobia/jingoism and apartheid like Boss mentality which is simply staggering.
In that context the quality of his speeches - and Afganistan/wall street bail-out apart - the quality of his policy initiatives, is staggering. How much longer can he survive - given even the nature of his Blue dog dependent congressional majority?
In that context I will accept a few faux "balancing statements" inserted into his speeches to appeal to the home political market. The question is how much he can shift the Overton window before he is rendered powerless... notes from no w here
Whether he gets what he wants in the future depends on how feared he is by the opposition. At this point, he's probably as likely to gain seats as he is to lose them in the midterms.
Looks like Harry Reid will (unfortunately perhaps) be alright since the Reps can't seem to find a decent candidate. The Nevada GOP is in chaos.
I know Chris Dodd's approvals blow, but I have a tough time seeing Connecticut voting for a winger.
Arlen Specter has probably sentenced himself and his party to death by turning on EFCA. He needs moderate Reps to win the general, but the moderate Reps in Pennsyltucky are almost all Democrats now, so the GOP is more extreme there than it was last time when he nearly lost the primary. He'll probably lose the primary, and his opponent will probably lose the general badly.
The Florida Senate seat depends wholly on whether Charlie Crist wants it or not. If he's in, the Reps will keep it. (Not a total loss for us, as Crist will be a better Rep to deal with than Mel "Eet wuhs CAHSTRO!" Martinez.) If Crist wants to stay in the governor's mansion, the Senate race will be competitive.
Ohio will be competitive. New Hampshire should be a Dem pick-up now that Gregg isn't running. North Carolina will be competitive. There are some others.
The point is that, right now, the Reps can bitch and moan, but Obama's generally going to get what he wants, because he's popular and the election math still favors his party. And if the Dems do pick up seats -- even just 2 or 3 -- in 2010, they can obviously do whatever the hell they want until 2012.
If the economy recovers for 2012, then forget it: The Reps are done. Obama will roll to reelection, and despite the structural advantage swinging to the Reps in Congress, the Dems will probably lose few, if any, seats. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
I agree that the early dynamics of the midterms are still very favourable to generic dems and all other things being equal they are still likely to consolidate their position. But what if Obama dramatically cuts military expenditure, aid to Israel, increases taxes/regulation on the rich or fails to refloat the economy?
We are still at the honeymoon/formative stage of his reputation formation. The GOP is still struggling to find any narrative which can attack him from a new angle or help them garner fresh support. So far they are even having difficulty holding on to their base support. But all that could change v. v. quickly if OBama doesn't deliver on economic regeneration, and given how huge the debts he is taking on, it is difficult to see how he can deliver in the short term. notes from no w here
The response to his attempts to mobilize popular support for the budget was tepid. Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.
