If the Croats want to live in a Croat state... they should be allowed to do so. There is absolutely no valid political or economic reason which should deny the Croats the right to choose their national orientations, while at the same time allowing the Albanians in Kosovo the right to choose theirs.
By maintaining the status quo, Bosnia is likely to remain on life support for a very long time to come. I don't believe that's in the long-term interests of either the local populations or Europe. The local populations (in particular the Muslims) need to get to grips with real politik and understand that they will never dominate Bosnia without another bloody war - which could end up harming their populations more than the Croats or Serbs.
US policy will be instrumental in shaping the region's future. If the current administration encourages the Muslims to seek a 'united Bosnia' we're likely to see antagonism, tensions and even war. On the other hand, if US policy follows the line of ethnic self-determination, we're likely to see some short-term tension but long-term peace.
Are we talking about a total and complete rewriting of borders across ALL of the former Yugo?
Bosnia, Kosovo, Macedonia, even some parts of Serbia?
Would that satisfy everyone? Or just create more trouble?
Nevermind the fact that 100,000 died in vain.
How can the Serbs argue possession of Kosovo while simultaneously thinking of secession from Bosnia?
The same way that the West can argue independence for Kosovo while insisting on a unitary Bosnia. My understanding is that Serbs have made offers to negotiate a global solution.
Redrawing the maps of Slovenia & Croatia are out of the question - I presume. What IS on the table is the rest. Here are some ideas of possible solutions:
Bosnia - split into 3, with a big problem for the Muslims who would end up with 2 separate states with no land link. Although this seems unworkable at first glance, I would argue that once each ethnic group establishes full sovereignty over its area, the power base of the ultra nationalists will wane and an environment of reconciliation might take root. The whole deal could be made conditional on each side accepting the free movement of people, goods & services between the different entities - and why not between the ex-Yugoslav republics?
Serbia - the areas where there are conflicting claims are Presevo and Bujanovac which are majority Albanian and Sandzak - which is Serbian Muslim (Bosniak if you prefer or Turckicised Slavs - now THAT doesn't exist in any dictionary). Sandzak has no viability as an independent state and can't be attached to other Muslim areas in Bosnia, plus there isn't any repression of Muslims in Sandzak - so I would leave it as part of Serbia. Regarding Presevo and Bujanovac, I would argue that it should remain in Serbia to compensate for all the lost Serb enclaves in Kosovo (see below)
Kosovo - The northern tip is easy to manage - the large majority being Serb. It could, however, create an psychological problem for the Albanians because the Trepca mine is located in the North (worth about 5B€) as are some large freshwater lakes which are source of most of Pristina's water. No easy solution in sight with regards to the Serb enclaves within Kosovo, nor the many hundreds of cultural and religious sites in what Serbs consider their Jerusalem... only viable solution is to hand that over to the Albanians with some sort of UNESCO protection.
Macedonia - split in two: Western Albanian and Eastern Slav Macedonian.
Certainly wouldn't satisfy everyone, but I think that it would satisfy more people than the current situation which doesn't satisfy anyone either.
Those people died in van no matter what ultimate solution is implemented.
I'd say you're probably better off waiting for the EU as currently comprised.
But even if the EU prospect materialises, I unfortunately think that every national minority is just going to be waiting for their day to reclaim. Sort that out now & you'll eliminate potential sources of future cancers.
What I am no so sure of is that the EU diplomats actually understand Bosnia. EU15 diplomats seem to have precious little clue about the rest of the EU, let alone the bits outside it, even 5 years after the expansion to 25. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
There are a few caveats. The US cares about its credibiltiy. If we're somehow a stakeholder (I don't believe we are much) we will often extend our pursuit of a policy. Even a flawed policy. Then there's the whole regional stability issue. If we see, say, strong Russian backing for Serb militancy in getting its way without regard to other nationalities, then it becomes a great power game. At that point, we cannot remain neutral. If tanks start rolling across frontiers, I think we'd offer aid, but not troops, and I am certain we'd have words with Moscow about that beforehand. Our standing in the Muslim world is also another consideration (though I believe this a deeply flawed analysis). It has been pointed out that our supposed help (I seem to remember an arms embargo) of the Muslim community in the FRY can be used to counter the theme in the Middle East that America hates Islam.
As long as Serbs, Kosovars, Bosniaks, Croats, etc., intend to work out their own issues without too much violence, I think the US would be content to stay out of it.
I also believe we'd be more than happy at this point to let the Europeans field this one with our support, but without our direction.
It'd take some real nastiness for the US to take its eyes of itself, which usually is where they like to focus anyways. Remember, democrats still have political momentum (a little), and that means the policy focus will be mostly domestic (jobs, education, healthcare, the economy, restoring trust in banking and business, etc.). Blame 9/11 for making Americans feel as if security is a major domestic issue. That's what has Obama on the news from Europe, the Middle East, etc. Otherwise, that would be buried on page 9 or something.
In the US, nobody is talking about the Balkans. They're talking about Afghanistan. "It Can't Be Just About Us"--Frank Schnittger, ETian Extraordinaire
I see the US more as a destabilizing factor in most regions it's been involved in since the 1990s. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
Bosnian Serb leader against appointing U.S. special envoy BELGRADE, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodikon Wednesday warned the United States to refrain from appointing a special envoy for the troubled Balkan country, Bosnia's news web portal Pincom reported. "Solutions should be sought within the boundaries of local institutions and that should be possible unless requests for general changes are irrational and unrealistic," Dodik told a news conference in the Bosnian city of Banja Luka. "I count on the U.S. administration being sensible, but if it decides (to appoint a special envoy), those who make such a decision will also be responsible for its success or failure," said Dodik, prime minister of the Bosnian Serb entity of Republika Srpska. He said that announcements about the appointment of a U.S. special envoy for the Balkans were the result of lobbying by those who wanted radical changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina. According to diplomatic sources, the idea of the new U.S. administration appointing a new envoy for the Balkans has been increasingly getting broader local and international support, and the U.S. State Department continues to contemplate this possibility. ...
BELGRADE, April 8 (Xinhua) -- Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodikon Wednesday warned the United States to refrain from appointing a special envoy for the troubled Balkan country, Bosnia's news web portal Pincom reported.
"Solutions should be sought within the boundaries of local institutions and that should be possible unless requests for general changes are irrational and unrealistic," Dodik told a news conference in the Bosnian city of Banja Luka.
"I count on the U.S. administration being sensible, but if it decides (to appoint a special envoy), those who make such a decision will also be responsible for its success or failure," said Dodik, prime minister of the Bosnian Serb entity of Republika Srpska.
He said that announcements about the appointment of a U.S. special envoy for the Balkans were the result of lobbying by those who wanted radical changes in Bosnia-Herzegovina.
According to diplomatic sources, the idea of the new U.S. administration appointing a new envoy for the Balkans has been increasingly getting broader local and international support, and the U.S. State Department continues to contemplate this possibility.
...
Everyone is in thrall to Obama and they want a piece of his magic in Bosnia, too. Most economists teach a theoretical framework that has been shown to be fundamentally useless. -- James K. Galbraith
