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How are barely solvent banks going to pay back trillions?

It didn't happen in the UK with Northern Rock - no matter that that's how the plan was presented - and it's hardly going to happen in the US.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu May 21st, 2009 at 09:36:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First those derivative chains and packages have to be unwinded and unpacked. At this time no one knows how big the damage really is.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Thu May 21st, 2009 at 09:55:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The banks who have 'borrowed' trillions didn't seem to find that a limitation.

Are you denying that money has gone?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 04:25:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sigh. I'm not "denying" anything, I'm simply saying that the cost is not known yet, and someone (Geithner?) already commented that the actual needs are much lower, as complex derivatives are being unwound. You did notice the big banks rushing to pay back those loans - which are far from 13 trillions, anyway.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 08:28:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The actual needs will have to be "much lower" by at the very least two full orders of magnitude for the logic to possibly tilt in your direction.

And as for Geithner... well, if he tells you that the sky is blue, you should look out of your window before agreeing.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 09:36:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least ten percent of the TARP money has already been paid out in bonuses to the CEOs, CFOs and other fatcats. That money is gone, into the pockets of a couple of dozen American oligarchs. It is unlikely that this figure is substantially lower for any of the other measures.

So at best, the cost goes down by an order of magnitude. And that's not nearly enough for you to have a case.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 04:34:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I feel like asking you for a source for this information. 10% of the TARP is already far from 10% of 13 trillions, btw.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 08:29:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why, of course (via).

TARP is the only one of the multitude of bank handout programs that had any modicum of oversight. If you think that the banks have behaved any better with the money that the Fed printed them outside Congressional oversight, then I have a bridge I want to sell you.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 09:51:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frankly I didn't think it would amount to 70 billion. Appalling. Like I said before, it is unbelievable that the government is not in the boards of those banks, and that congressional oversight is barely visible. I do agree with Jerome's original claim that they (financiers) have learnt nothing at all.
Oh well.
When you read the Guardian story about people that continue to consider millions in bonuses as perfectly normal, you feel like saying that maybe banks should be nationalized after all.

Although the real issue is particularly with finance schools and the whole culture of this industry rather than banks themselves. The problem is those people's mentality, rather than the "banking system". There was an article by Krugman speaking about making banking boring. Related to this, maybe there are too many unused bright and adventurous minds out there that need to be occupied with something. Before they were making wars out of nothing, or becoming pirates. Now they put up bubbles.
So again, oh well. The enemy is ourselves, in the end. Maybe mankind is doomed to autodestroy at some point, one way or another.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Fri May 22nd, 2009 at 03:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frankly I didn't think it would amount to 70 billion.

70 bn is just the bonuses. Dividends and payouts from mergers are another 130 bn or so. Or rather, it was when that article was written. It cannot be smaller today, but it can certainly be greater.

Although the real issue is particularly with finance schools and the whole culture of this industry rather than banks themselves. The problem is those people's mentality, rather than the "banking system".

Greedy fucks who are willing to gamble with other people's money will always be there. Appealing to some improvement in the general moral code of the industry has never actually worked. So any system that cannot put greedy fucks who gamble with other people's money in a straitjacket and show them the door is systemically broken and has to be changed.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 03:48:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greedy exist ever since there are jobs related to managing other people's money. But as Krugman points out here

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/10/opinion/10krugman.html

there were times when things were -- manageable. The tide turned in the 90s (as in many other domains) when the complex derivatives and the IT took off.
And then like I said, the society cannot consider itself without blame. That kind of culture is now pervasive in the society, libertarianism, a sort of alpha-male individualism and disinterest for the others, this rat race for material possessions, a certain cynicism, short-termism, lack of education (no, that does not mean I would be some old school conservative), and in general what we call "nivellement par le bas" in all places.
Well here it is, we harvest what we sew.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 01:23:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I fail to see how any of that is an argument for leaving the clearing system in the hands of the private financial sector.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 03:16:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That was not my fight, actually :)

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 04:55:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More to the point of immediate action, indeed the straitjacket is necessary. Ways could always be found to put them gamblers in prison without possibility of parole. The lack of action from governments in punishing the culpables is absolutely mind-boggling.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 01:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Running particularly offencive specimens out of town on a rail would undoubtedly have a salutary effect on the general standard of commercial morality.

But it is not enough. Never has been, never will be.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 03:02:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There was a cute video on TV with a group of traders asking for forgiveness from the public.

They could also be forced to live in a poor neighbourhood, doing some garbage collecting jobs.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Sat May 23rd, 2009 at 04:54:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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