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Bogus. There are no reserves to reimburse those "set" amounts. It all depends if there is or not a run on banks. Which means, covering is only useful in peaceful times, when by definition there is no crisis.

Or otherwise said, their sole purpose is to lure the naive voter into thinking his deposit is covered. ANd I mean the poor ones.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 12:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You saw how quickly governments reassured the public that their deposits were covered when the crisis came. The fact is, they are still covered when there is a crisis. Though the coverage may cause inflation, that's better than a run on a bank with no coverage.

What the governments also did (as in Ireland) was to cover creditors' exposure while talking about protecting depositors (who were already protected). That was disingenuous.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 12:55:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, the only bank run since the crisis began in 2007 was that on Northern Rock, which was triggered because the UK had very limited deposit insurance, and led to the UK instituting 100% deposit insurance on GBP 50,000.

Deposit insurance (which was invented as a result of the 1930's wave of bank failures) is not "bogus" if its presence ensures it doesn't need to be used. And the current crisis has demonstrated it does work.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 01:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
lol you know, when Sarkozy (who I supported) was so strongly claiming that every cent will be guaranteed, everybody knew he couldn't even "guarantee" a dime: the numbers had been published that the guarantee fund only covers about 2% or so of the total guaranteed. But I didn't go withdraw all my money, and neither did others. And I assure you it wasn't because the 2% "existed", but because of the high likelihood that in such event, we won't get to profit from the guarantee fund.

The world stood, not from confidence, but from cynicism.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Retail deposits are only a small portion of bank liabilities.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:35:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And this is supposed to warm my pillow tonight ?

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:37:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it's easier to guarantee retail deposits, as is the case in France, than all liabilities, as was done in Ireland.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:40:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Obviously. Ireland's claim was bogus, propaganda, demagogy, which is why everybody else got mad on them. But when barely 25000 accounts can be guaranteed by the French guarantee fund (information from media in october 2008, I've no link right now), this means the fund can rescue the retail deposits of not even ONE BIG BANK. So well.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:52:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, there has been a bank run in the UK because only about 2000 GBP was guaranteed at 100% with a lower percentage thereafter, whereas there have been no bank runs in Ireland (where everyone knows the government cannot possibly make good on the stated guarantee of all liabilities) or France. Or in Iceland, for that matter!

So, I rest my case. Deposit insurance prevents runs on banks' retail deposits.

What we have had is a series of "bank runs' on the capital markets side of banking institutions. Which is why Glass-Steagall was such a great idea and why it took about 10 years since it was repealed for a new Great Crash complete with its own Bank Panic and Long, Deep Recession.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 20th, 2009 at 02:26:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, there was a run on a Spanish Caja. But it was so slow and quiet nobody noticed until the bank was taken over by the regulator. Unlike Northern Rock.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed May 20th, 2009 at 03:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course the government can guarantee all reatail deposits, even if only a very small sum has been "put away" (whatever that means in practice, it's just ones and zeroes in a computer anyway).

The government can print as much money as it wants to cover the deposits. Sure, that will create inflation, but the government only promised to guarantee the deposits, not the value of the currency.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Wed May 20th, 2009 at 03:19:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Sure, that will create inflation, but the government only promised to guarantee the deposits, not the value of the currency"

We have a name for this in France, which I won't repeat here. I'm going to leave that honour to Jerome :)

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)

by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Wed May 20th, 2009 at 04:54:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, well, those figures WERE trotted out.
I distinctly remember that they assumed that EVERY account would have at least 70 k€ in it.

How many people do you know with over 70 k€ in their standard account?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed May 20th, 2009 at 04:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That depends...

If you have a moderately sized demand deposit account, then yes. Because it means that you can get your money back if the bank goes belly-up.

If you hold bonds in the bank, then no, because it means that the government can save the depositors' shirts without having to bail you out too. Which means that if the government takes its responsibility to the citizens seriously, you won't see a single taxpayer-financed eurocent.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 04:39:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That guarantee is backed by the power of the state to tax, just the same as the central bank notes.

There is no "reserve" to reimburse your 10 € notes either. That does not make them phony money.

Of course, if you have a sovereign default, then that's a different story...

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 01:38:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
lol and lol again. YOu do realize how close sovereign default were, and still are. You can't possibly be saying that they're almost unthinkable. You would remind me of those 95% of bankers and economists gathered in Davos in early 2007 or so and sweeping away any possibility of a crisis. So yeah. You may say that it should all be backed in gold. At the end of the day, virtual remains virtual, confidence included, and that doesn't feed my family.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Governments CAN print money to pay debt. Of course, it leads to quasi-default in the form of inflation, but it is possible, and has been regularly done.

And it is still the most likely outcome for the US / the $ in the medium term.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:39:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clearly. But see my post about the Chinese above somewhere.

Free at last! Free at last! Thank God Almighty, we are free at last! (Martin Luther King)
by ValentinD (walentijn arobase free spot frança) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 03:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not saying that sovereign default is unthinkable for peripheral economies like the UK, or banana republics like the US. But the core European and South Asian economies (Germany, France, China, India) will not be forced to default on their sovereign debt.

Regardless, however, the point was not whether a sovereign default was likely or not.

It was that a sovereign default is hard to say anything general about, because it can take so many forms: Default on guarantees (as Ireland will be forced to), default on foreign debt (as Russia and Argentina did some years ago), default on the state's obligations towards its employees (as the French state attempted with its pension reform theft plan), default on the state's obligations towards its citizens (as the Bush regime attempted with its pension reform theft plan).

Only in the rarest of cases (Zimbabwe comes to mind) does a sovereign default encompass all these. So predicting that a sovereign default will happen is usually easier than predicting precisely where it will happen.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue May 19th, 2009 at 05:12:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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