Anglo Disease idea echoes what was called Dutch Disease, when the predominance of the high-export natural gas industry in the Netherlands, among other damaging effects, drove up the exchange rate, penalising the exports of other sectors of the economy
I am struck by how the thesis advanced by NBBooks in his current diary, Debunking the Myth of the Financial Markets, should fit into this discussion. As he notes:
Wall Street simply is not doing what most people think it's doing. Nor what most people think it should be doing. Wall Street is not even doing what it says it is doing. Wall Street is pushing a big myth that its services are essential to the functioning of the rest of the economy. But the truth as, as this graph shows, Wall Street does not -- and has not for a very long time -- serve the function of allocating credit in the economy.
The arguments and graphs from Ozgur Orhangazi's Financialization and the US Economy seem cogent. I realize that selling this idea to Serious PeopleTM is an even bigger challenge than selling the recommendations Wolf has made, but the concepts are mutually reinforcing and the solutions would seem to be similar. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
The Anglo Disease as experienced in the USA seems qualitatively different due to the dollar's role as a reserve currency.
IANAE, but my take on that is that the US used the dollar's status as reserve currency to inflate its financial sector, where the UK used a much more aggressive policy of being a tax shelter flag of convenience country.
I'll leave it to the economists to hash out whether that's a qualitative difference.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Iceland, OTOH, has abundant energy resources. And the UK has a number of markers it could surrender in the European political game in return for help with its energy issues. Ireland... well, they're not quite as far in the hole as the UK, at least to judge by what I read on ET. Being a much smaller economy located much closer to a functioning economic zone is both a blessing and a curse that way...
The fundamental, underlying logic is the same. The political and economic fallout, and the specific way it was implemented are not.
"Any economic unit can emit money. The serious problem is to get it accepted" Hyman Minsky
With the economy going to hell, I'd say the people of Iceland will be pretty happy they'll still have the aluminum industry left, especially as I've heard the guestworkers have been shipping out because of the currency collapse: their wages aren't that high anymore in real terms.
So the Karahnjukar project should be a good thing now, if Alcoa doesn't fuck them over somehow. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
The fact that they were one of the central players in Pinochet's coup doesn't precisely do wonders for my confidence in their willingness to do well by Iceland either. AFAIK, they were never seriously punished for that story.
We'll just have to wait and see. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.