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A missing variable is a problem IF there is, in fact, a variable missing from a statistical model.  The problem is that often only theory can tell you if it is missing or not -- not anything in your model itself.  This means that you'll never know if it's missing if you haven't thought sufficiently about your problem.

That is why you make control experiments.

This is the real problem that most economists, as well as many other social scientists, and even medical researchers, struggle to answer: "What WOULD have happened if X were true instead of Y?" -- a counterfactual, in other words.  That's how causality is best inferred and how statistics is used to find the answer, but doing so is really hard work because counterfactuals are, by definition, unobservable, which means that a better theory makes all the difference.

And this is why you do double-blind placebo-controlled clinical trials.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 04:27:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But in all of those cases -- medical research and social science, the ability to do double blind placebo controlled clinical trials is almost never possible.  There are also, as given in the Causality book by Judea Pearl that I linked to above, significant problems with inferring causality EVEN from double blind placebo-controlled experiments that are ignored in much published research in the physical sciences.
by santiago on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 03:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In medical research, it is possible to do double-blind placebo-controlled (or if not against a placebo, then against the standard of care) clinical trails more often than not. It's not always possible, but it is in the majority of cases.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 05:37:05 PM EST
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