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Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty - Polling in Iran Shows Real Support for Ahmadinejad - washingtonpost.com
The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.

While Western news reports from Tehran in the days leading up to the voting portrayed an Iranian public enthusiastic about Ahmadinejad's principal opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran's provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.

Independent and uncensored nationwide surveys of Iran are rare. Typically, preelection polls there are either conducted or monitored by the government and are notoriously untrustworthy. By contrast, the poll undertaken by our nonprofit organizations from May 11 to May 20 was the third in a series over the past two years. Conducted by telephone from a neighboring country, field work was carried out in Farsi by a polling company whose work in the region for ABC News and the BBC has received an Emmy award. Our polling was funded by the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 07:22:31 AM EST
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Note that the 2-1 ratio is among those that expressed a preference. The number of "undecided" (or unwilling to say?) was even bigger that the number supporting Ahmadinejad. This doesn't contradict their conclusion, but the way the article is written seems a bit misleading.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 07:34:46 AM EST
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To follow up on my suspicion that something was wrong with this survey (based on the authors misleading account which carefully avoided being factually wrong), TPM has a followup:
The other crucial fact is that the survey was done on May 11-20 and the election was on June 12. When they started the survey, former president Khatami was a candidate. He withdrew on May 17 in favor of Mir Hossein Musavi, who had just announced his candidacy.

So during most of the period of the phone survey, Mousavi was not even a declared candidate. His "green wave," that inspired so much excitement among Iranian voters had not even been invented.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 02:33:31 PM EST
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