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by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:26:39 AM EST
Guardian 16 June 2009
Iranian hardliners' attempts to resist the country's biggest uprising for decades appeared to be weakening today as popular pressure forced officials to announce a recount of disputed votes from Friday's presidential elections.

In a move that appeared to represent a further concession from the authorities, the country's powerful guardian council said it was ready to hold a recount in areas disputed by opposition candidates. No details of the scope of the recount and who would carry it out were available, though the council said it had rejected opposition demands to annul the official result, which saw the hardline incumbent, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, declared winner by a landslide.

The council, which consists of 12 senior clerics, was reported to have said that a recount could lead to changes in the votes recorded for the candidates, but some analysts said it would not necessarily bring a change in the final result.



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by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 11:36:21 AM EST
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Telegraph: Iran rules out full recount as protests build again

In what appeared to be a first concession by authorities to the protest movement, the 12-man body said it was ready to re-tally votes in the poll, in which hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the runaway winner.

But it rejected reformist calls to annul Friday's election, which provoked protests that ended in the deaths of at least seven people on Monday.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 01:17:08 PM EST
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Reuters 16 June 2009

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran's top legislative body on Tuesday ruled out annulling a disputed presidential poll that has prompted the biggest street protests since the 1979 Islamic revolution, but said it was prepared for a partial recount.

(Editors' note: Reuters coverage is now subject to an Iranian ban on foreign media leaving the office to report, film or take pictures in Tehran.)

In what appeared to be a first concession by authorities to the protest movement, the 12-man Guardian Council said it was ready to re-tally votes in the poll, in which hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared the runaway winner.

But the powerful Council rejected reformist calls to annul Friday's election, which set off swift-moving political turmoil, riveting attention on the world's fifth-biggest oil exporter.



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by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 12:44:50 PM EST
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Al Jazeera: Government supporters rally in Iran

Thousands of pro-government demonstrators have gathered in Tehran in a show of support for the authorities' crackdown on independent media and opposition protesters.

The government mustered its supporters in Vali Asr Square on Tuesday, a day after seven people were killed in clashes on the fringes of a huge opposition rally a day earlier.

Supporters of Mousavi had planned to gather for a second day in the square, but he urged them to stay away "to protect lives".

In a message posted on his website, Mousavi asked his supporters to "exercise self-restraint".

Despite the warning, opposition supporters were in evidence on the streets in Tehran, some carrying Mousavi's picture, raising the possibility of further clashes.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 01:04:13 PM EST
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Independent: Claims of student massacre in Tehran spread

The gates of the university were now shut. Behind them was a crowd of hundreds of young men and women, many wearing scarves over their mouths. I crossed the road. And the banners behind those forbidding gates told a frightening story. "Today is a day of mourning," one of them read. "Dignified students are mourners today." "Police, shame on you, shame on you." "Tell my mother - she doesn't have a son any more."

I walked up to the gate. Young female students were crying. So were some of the young men. "We don't want a government by coup," another poster read. "Tehran University dormitory has been coloured with students' blood," another said.
by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 01:06:22 PM EST
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Tehran Times: Chancellor denounces attacks on students

TEHRAN - University of Tehran Chancellor Farhad Rahbar has issued a statement condemning the attack on the university's students on Monday morning.

"The invasion of the University of Tehran's dormitory, which is the symbol of higher education of the country... and the beating of the beloved students... have caused a wave of sorrow and chagrin in me," he said in the statement issued on Monday.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 01:09:16 PM EST
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BBC: Iran clamps down on foreign media

Supporters of Iran's defeated presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousevi have again staged a mass rally in Tehran, witnesses told the BBC.

It comes despite Mr Mousavi's urging his backers not to march, in case they risked clashing with supporters of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Mr Ahmadinejad's supporters earlier held a rally in central Tehran.

Tough new restrictions on the foreign media mean the BBC is unable to confirm the scale of either rally.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 01:11:42 PM EST
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Reuters: Iranian blogosphere backs Mousavi as protests mount

LONDON (Reuters) - Supporters of defeated Iranian presidential candidate Mirhossein Mousavi posted defiant messages on Twitter on Tuesday, calling for a second banned pro-Mousavi rally to go ahead and offering security updates.

Web sites such as Twitter and Facebook have become a focal point for young, urban Iranians opposed to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who defeated Mousavi in Friday's presidential election and whose government controls the state media.

More than 23 million Iranians in a country of 70 million -- more than 60 percent of whom are under the age of 20 -- have access to the Internet.
by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 03:31:30 PM EST
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Telegraph: Leaked election results "show Mahmoud Ahmadinejad came third"

The statistics, circulated on Iranian blogs and websites, claimed Mr Mousavi had won 19.1 million votes while Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had won only 5.7 million.

The two other candidates, reformist Mehdi Karoubi and hardliner Mohsen Rezai, won 13.4 million and 3.7 million respectively. The authenticity of the leaked figures could not be confirmed.

by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 03:37:00 PM EST
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Interesting - but I'd guess if someone was trying to fake an election, they probably wouldn't bother counting the votes properly at all.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 03:56:14 PM EST
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I have trouble believing these numbers, because I agree with you that, assuming for simplicity's sake the election was rigged, it doesn't seem likely the votes were ever really counted.  Why bother, really?

I also have trouble believing Karoubi came in second.  There's another alleged leak floating around showing Ammadinnerjacket in second at somewhere around the mid-30s, vs Moussavi in the mid-50s, if I remember correctly.  That at least seems plausible, more so than the Torygraph's numbers or, I think, the results from the Interior Ministry.

But none of them are grab me and make me think, "Ah, here we go."  We're probably never going to know one way or another.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 08:19:31 PM EST
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The numbers are supposedly from the Interior Ministry or whomever it is that counts the votes.  Apparently they are under Rafsanjani's loyalty and he prompted this release of information.  

The first batch of numbers showed that the guy to the right of Ahmadenijad had gained much of his support.  The later batch Drew refers to fit nicely with the conventional wisdom in the days immediately preceding the election itself.

There are also many stories of shenanigans with the ballots, but really, who didn't figure that.

by paving on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 02:31:24 AM EST
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Guardian: Khamenei calls for calm as unrest grows

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, tonight dismissed post-election protests as the work of "tension seekers" and called for calm on national television.

As thousands of rival demonstrators filed through the streets of Tehran, promising further violence in days of unrest that have already killed seven people, the ayatollah called for "tolerance", adding: "Everybody should be patient.

In key developments today:

  • Two major figures from the reformist movement were arrested. Mohammad Ali Abtahi and Saeed Hajarian both supported Mousavi and were senior advisers to the former reformist president, Mohammad Khatami.

  • Clashes and mass arrests were reported on university campuses of those supporting Mousavi.

  • State television claimed that the "main agents" in post-election unrest had been arrested with explosives and guns. It gave no further details.

  • President Ahmadinejad left Iran to attend a summit in Russia, where he failed to mention the crisis gripping his country.
by Sassafras on Tue Jun 16th, 2009 at 04:45:41 PM EST
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Recount Offer Fails to Quell Political Tumult in Iran    NYT June 16, 2009  

Reformers, with substantial popular support but without the power of the state, worked to gain religious backers, urging clerics to break with the government. "No one in his sane mind can accept these results," a senior opposition cleric, Hassan-Ali Montazeri, said in a public letter posted on his Web site.

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The Guardian Council, the watchdog body that needs to certify the results, said it was willing to conduct a partial recount of the votes, the IRNA news agency reported. Ayatollah Khamenei, who had urged the council on Monday to examine the vote-rigging claims, said Tuesday that the candidates needed to resolve the issue through legal channels.

Mr. Moussavi's representative, Ali Akbar Mohtashamipour, said a recount would not meet the demands of the protesters, Ghalamnews, a Web site linked to Mr. Moussavi, reported.

"We believe there has been fraud because our representatives were not allowed to supervise the elections, and we have evidence of many irregularities," he was quoted as saying.

He gave an example: votes cast at some polling places, he said, exceeded the number of eligible voters in those areas. He also said the Guardian Council had not been impartial before the election because some of its members even campaigned for Mr. Ahmadinejad.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 12:34:28 AM EST
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Laura Secor:The Supreme Leader's Next Move  The New Yorker Blog  6-16-'09  

Today begins with seemingly contradictory news from Iran: the Guardian Council, a body of clerics that holds more power than the President or the parliament, has agreed to recount some of the votes from Friday's disputed election. At the same time, the regime has expelled some members of the foreign press, forbidden Iranian journalists from leaving their offices, and arrested major reformist figures, including the former Vice-President Mohammad Ali Abtahi, the former member of parliament Behzad Nabavi, and the reformist political strategist Saeed Hajjarian. These are men with impeccable revolutionary credentials--Hajjarian and Nabavi were founders of the Islamic Republic's intelligence apparatus--and unquestionable loyalty to the constitutional order. What is going on here?

The Guardian Council's gambit, while not entirely without promise, should be viewed with some skepticism. First, the council is not recounting all the ballots, if they can be found; it is reviewing only disputed ballot boxes, whatever that means. Second, this is not a disinterested review of the election results; in Iranian politics, the Guardian Council is essentially the practical hand of the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the organ by which he most directly intervenes in the affairs of state. Through it, he has veto power over all legislation and can disqualify candidates for public office at will. Its members are directly or indirectly appointed by the Supreme Leader, and manifestly beholden to him. So this is not a neutral intervention; it is Khamenei's next move.

That's what makes it interesting and, for the moment, perplexing. What are Khamenei's options? With protesters yelling "Down with the dictator" in the streets of nearly every city in Iran, his position could not be more precarious. He has staked his very legitimacy, and perhaps that of the edifice he sits atop, on forcing Iranians to accept Ahmadinejad's supposed landslide victory. He can continue to try to force that down their throats with a show of raw power, or he can bend, which would show the opposition that he and the system are not really so powerful after all, that they are vulnerable to pressure from below. If he takes the latter road, it would be a radical departure from his style of governance up until now. This is the regime that violently quelled protest movements in 1999 and in 2002, crushed the hopes of reformers under Mohammad Khatami from 1997 through 2005, and apparently could not tolerate even the possibility of a Mousavi Presidency. But if he chooses the path of violence, he will transform his country into a crude and seething autocracy.

This is uncharted territory for the Islamic Republic of Iran. Until now, the regime has survived through a combination of repression and flexibility. The dispersal of power throughout a complex system, among rival political factions, and with the limited but active participation of the voting public, has allowed a basically unpopular regime to control a large population with only limited and targeted violence. There have always been loopholes and pressure points that allow the opposition and the regime to be dance partners, even if one or both of them is secretly brandishing a knife behind the other's back. That has been less true under Ahmadinejad than in the past. But the culture of the organized opposition under the Islamic Republic has tended to remain cautious and moderate. Many of the protesters of recent days are not calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. They are calling for their votes to be counted. More nights like last night, however, when some seven protesters were allegedly shot, could swiftly change that.

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Who knows what sort of president Mousavi would have been, or could yet be? He is an entirely different kind of animal from reformist politicians of the past; he is identified not with students and intellectuals but with the hardscrabble war years and the defense of the poor. But as one analyst explained to me, the problem he faces is that he is perhaps the only person on the Iranian political scene whose public stature is equal to Khamenei's. He was a favorite son of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the nineteen-eighties. Many Khomeinists in the power structure respect and support him; within the Revolutionary Guards, as well as within the upper clergy, he has a constituency. Traditional, religious people are among his supporters, too. On the morning of June 12th, he may have been the uncharismatic compromise candidate for the anyone-but-Ahmadinejad crowd. But to other voters he was then, and he has increasingly become, something else: the vehicle both for the memory of the utopia that never came, and for the hopes of a younger generation that imagines he shares its vision of the future.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 12:55:58 AM EST
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The Supreme Leader is five minutes away from being toast.  Nobody cares anymore what he says, that is very significant.  He wasn't all that popular with the Clerics to begin with.
by paving on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 02:32:23 AM EST
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Two brief videos from today:

First, protesters hanging with the Iranian police, a remarkable shot.

Second, protesters reacting to shots by the Basijis, the hired goon militias, notice how they stand their ground.

Watch both of these videos and tell me who you think is "winning"

by paving on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 02:38:46 AM EST
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EU parliament urged not to endorse Ahmedinejad - Elections : news, world | euronews

Two renowned Iranian film makers have urged the European Parliament not to endorse Mahmoud Ahmedinejad as winner of Iran's Presidential election. Marjane Satrapi and Mohsen Makhmalbaf said the people of Iran and opposition leader Mirhossein Mousavi were robbed of the vote:

"We have a document from the Interior Ministry which says votes for Mousavi: 19 million, Karoubi 13 million and Ahmedinejad five million. That is 12 percent of the vote, not 62 percent."

Speaking in Brussels, the pair also claimed that military chiefs had told Mousavi he would not become President despite getting the majority of the votes.



The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 17th, 2009 at 04:42:30 AM EST
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