NEW YORK (Reuters) - The U.S. economy will not recover until the end of this year, and even then, growth will remain weak and vulnerable to higher interest rates and commodity prices, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday. Speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, the head of RGE Global Monitor dismissed the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession, with the economy expanding only slightly, then beginning to contract again. "To me it's more like yellow weeds," he said, pointing to continued weakness in industrial production. Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, said the U.S. jobless rate, already at a 26-year high of 9.4 percent, would reach 11 percent before it begins to ease. He added that he saw few engines for growth, given that U.S. consumers are tapped out. Given this outlook, Roubini said Federal Reserve policy makers, whom he says completely missed the magnitude of the crisis at its inception, faced an unenviable set of policy choices.
Speaking at the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit, the head of RGE Global Monitor dismissed the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession, with the economy expanding only slightly, then beginning to contract again.
"To me it's more like yellow weeds," he said, pointing to continued weakness in industrial production.
Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, said the U.S. jobless rate, already at a 26-year high of 9.4 percent, would reach 11 percent before it begins to ease. He added that he saw few engines for growth, given that U.S. consumers are tapped out.
Given this outlook, Roubini said Federal Reserve policy makers, whom he says completely missed the magnitude of the crisis at its inception, faced an unenviable set of policy choices.
Stay the Course (2009) "A few months ago the U.S. economy was in danger of falling into depression. Aggressive monetary policy and deficit spending have, for the time being, averted that danger. And suddenly critics are demanding that we call the whole thing off, and revert to business as usual. "Those demands should be ignored. It's much too soon to give up on policies that have, at most, pulled us a few inches back from the edge of the abyss." Dubya's Double Dip (2002) "The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."
"A few months ago the U.S. economy was in danger of falling into depression. Aggressive monetary policy and deficit spending have, for the time being, averted that danger. And suddenly critics are demanding that we call the whole thing off, and revert to business as usual.
"Those demands should be ignored. It's much too soon to give up on policies that have, at most, pulled us a few inches back from the edge of the abyss."
Dubya's Double Dip (2002)
"The basic point is that the recession of 2001 wasn't a typical postwar slump, brought on when an inflation-fighting Fed raises interest rates and easily ended by a snapback in housing and consumer spending when the Fed brings rates back down again. This was a prewar-style recession, a morning after brought on by irrational exuberance. To fight this recession the Fed needs more than a snapback; it needs soaring household spending to offset moribund business investment. And to do that, as Paul McCulley of Pimco put it, Alan Greenspan needs to create a housing bubble to replace the Nasdaq bubble."
There's a tell. And a tip for investors. In case they hadn't noticed the ramp up to "nationalized" health insurance spending ... on taxable benefits... which could be deferred ... Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
No way out, this time. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
J, you wag! Which one? Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
Another way we can achieve savings is by reducing payments to hospitals for treating uninsured people. I know hospitals rely on these payments now, legitimately, because of the large number of uninsured patients that they treat. But if we put in a system where people have coverage and the number of uninsured people goes down with our reforms, the amount we pay hospitals to treat uninsured people should go down, as well. Reducing these payments gradually, as more and more people have coverage, will save us over $106 billion. And we'll make sure the difference goes to the hospitals that need it most.
Now, if the bank holding companies don't want Fed VC assistance to enter a newly "sterlized" insurance industry in a "modernized regulatory" framework...
There's alwaysssss carbon credit trading! The vultures are getting more sassy by the day. Can you believe this shit? Passive CO2 capture tied to RE value -- a nice investment opportunity, if you're not ground-floor at FuturGen Alliance.
Sandor Got Obama's Nod for Chicago-Style Climate Law The carbon credits in question involve agricultural projects that reduce CO2 in the atmosphere by planting trees or not tilling cropland. Emissions avoided through such methods are represented by carbon credits that can be traded.
The carbon credits in question involve agricultural projects that reduce CO2 in the atmosphere by planting trees or not tilling cropland. Emissions avoided through such methods are represented by carbon credits that can be traded.
Oh, there's more to the article. Mr Dick "Swaps" Sandor is quite a character. I first read about Sandor hooked up with Pershing (1998), shopping Brazil forests (2000) and CCX (Gore et al). He's totally connected. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
There's news.
But with such good news that the economy will be merely weak, and unemployment only slightly worse, and the foreclosure rate falling less rapidly and the dollar weaker by only another 10% to the euro, I predict Dow 10,000 and more. Gravy Train for everyone~!
</wishing it were snark> Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.
Frank Delaney ~ Ireland
