I also have trouble believing Karoubi came in second.  There's another alleged leak floating around showing Ammadinnerjacket in second at somewhere around the mid-30s, vs Moussavi in the mid-50s, if I remember correctly.  That at least seems plausible, more so than the Torygraph's numbers or, I think, the results from the Interior Ministry.

But none of them are grab me and make me think, "Ah, here we go."  We're probably never going to know one way or another.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

The first batch of numbers showed that the guy to the right of Ahmadenijad had gained much of his support.  The later batch Drew refers to fit nicely with the conventional wisdom in the days immediately preceding the election itself.

There are also many stories of shenanigans with the ballots, but really, who didn't figure that.