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Does Ben Bernanke blow bubbles too?
Naked Capitalism  Guest Post by Edward Harrison

During Alan Greenspan's tenure at the helm of the Federal Reserve, he was often accused of using monetary policy to target asset markets so as to keep the party going. In short, Alan Greenspan was seen by many, including myself, as the bubble blower-in-chief. All of this came to an end with the very hard landing we have experienced after the global housing bubble.

However, despite the economy being in tatters and debt deflation looming as a threat, many asset markets have zoomed ahead. The cause: easy money in the U.S. and elsewhere. In the U.S., we have zero percent rates with Ben Bernanke at the helm. So, naturally, you should ask yourself: Does Ben Bernanke blow bubbles too?

To get at an answer to that question, I want to highlight a recent post on MoneyWeek called "The next big investment bubble - green energy." In this article, research from James Montier of SocGen about investor attitudes in bubbles is quite enlightening.

   James Montier at Societe Generale is a specialist in 'behavioural finance'. This basically takes psychology and applies it to the field of investment and economics.

    As someone who's studied psychology in the past, I'd be the first to admit that it's a pretty 'soft' science compared to something like physics, for example. But compared to the pseudo-science that is economics, it's positively respectable.



The Money Week article proposes that the next bubble will be in "green energy."  He obviously wants to piss on those green shoots.  But Harrison cites The next bubble from FT Alphaville to propose emerging markets as an alternative locus for the next great bubble. And he also concludes that Bernanke also blows bubbles.


As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jun 25th, 2009 at 09:26:28 PM EST
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Great graphs in the FT Alphaville article:
Here are some more interesting charts.

And they worry Citigroup's lead strategist Robert Buckland because they could create the next mania - an emerging markets bubble.



As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jun 25th, 2009 at 09:34:00 PM EST
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And to boot, the behavioral economics research by James Montier cited above showed that investors burned by a bubble would still invest in another bubble, believing they could "get out in time" the second time around.  They couldn't and twice bitten, they refused a third round-----UNTIL, the amount of stock was cut in half and the amount of money was doubled----"effectively creating what might be termed a massive liquidity surge."  Then they created a third but short lived bubble.

I wonder if Bernanke read the article?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jun 25th, 2009 at 09:44:26 PM EST
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The buzz of the day is becoming this article in Rolling Stone (by Matt Taibi):

The Great American Bubble Machine

From tech stocks to high gas prices, Goldman Sachs has engineered every major market manipulation since the Great Depression - and they're about to do it again

The stories of the Goldman Sachs' scope of influence are boiling quite for some time. At the moment, they seem to be having best times ever...

by das monde on Fri Jun 26th, 2009 at 01:14:48 AM EST
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