I'm increasingly convinced -- as is, for the record, Paul Krugman -- that the hyperinflationist talk is largely -- but not entirely, and certainly not in Merkel's case -- fearmongering on the part of the people who made the mess to begin with, in an effort to stop governments from intervening to help people, and to drive up value to creditors. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Has that column been discussed here anywhere yet? Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
That's money spent by the rich that is going to be repaid by all rather than by those that enjoyed it. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
"Expropriate" implies compensation, which is counterproductive in this case.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
So instead shitpile is being bought from them at notional values... Ugh. The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
So monetary expansion has been, and I think will continue to be, quite modest and still probably results in a net decrease in total public and private credit and purchasing power available to capitalists -- still a deflationary situation regarding asset prices.
I think you have your banker hat on here when you should be using your economist hat. Balance sheet entries do not say much about true levels of real goods and services, counterparty confidence, and purchasing power in an economy. That requires economic intuition, not accounting intuition which you appear to be relying on too closely with this diary. It's the same mistake conservatives like Merkel are making.
That said, I think you're alluding to valid criticism of overspending in general and that is that it probably does matter what public funds are spent on, something that most Keynesian liberals don't accept. Spending on investments that will save energy costs and increase human and social capital through education and institutional/infrastructure development and maintenance are likely to reduce future inflation rather than add to it. There is some truth to the conservative point that the American economy recovered without inflation after WWII largely because its risky investment in destroying the rest of planet's capital paid off in a big way -- it was a major investment with quantifiable returns, not just digging holes as Keynes suggested was sufficient.
You're arguing like a gambler who puts his house on the poker table but tells everyone it's just for show, as it's practically impossible that he could lose this round.
-- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
Which means people will keep buying the IOUs. For now.
Ask youself who is stupider: investors and creditors who accept worthless pretend IOUs to cover known bad IOUs, or taxpayers who believe that the IOUs their government has issued in their name are fake and will never be paid out when asked.
You can't have it both ways, either you "solve" the problem with real IOUs, or you issue fake IOUs and "solve" nothing, since everyone knows they aren't worth anything.
The point of real IOUs is that there is real risk attached to them. It doesn't do to hope that things will work out without anybody requiring payment. -- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
It is, on average, a losing strategy, but if you're going to gamble... The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
So the question, as expected, is whether you win before you run out of liquidity... In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
However, the expected number of bets to achieve the outcome is infinite, since the strategy is nonintegrable, and while one game might(!) let you win 1 with certainty, in repeated games you will run out of money, or if you have infinite funds, you will fail to achieve any strictly positive rate of winnings in the long run (and depending on how you compute the rate of winnings, you could fail to achieve any finite negative rate of winnings either, ie the losses can't be usefully limited). -- $E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$
What is needed is concerted effort to sever the hands of dying financial institutions that are currently around the neck of the entire US society before that sector drags us all into an early grave. It is NOT a question of spending or guarantees per se, but rather a question of the long term effectiveness of that spending and those guarantees and the constraints they place on future policy. See the second link in my comment down thread. It is to a paper by Simon Johnson showing the consequences of such decisions. See also the post based on Edward Harrison below. We can say "Fuck inflation", but we had better be prepared to be well and truly fucked by inflation if we are unprepared when recovery is underway. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
The problem is wealth concentration. What the US has now is a ghost economy, populated entirely by chimeras, supported by a huge pile of government-backed 'Would I lie to you?'
But there's no foundation. So the real economy will remain in depression while the ghost economy resumes modest growth - for a while, until the 'Would I lie to you?' runs out.
Here's a traditional conservative's reaction:
Merkel for the Fed The German leader's welcome rebuke to central bankers. To the Red Sox winning the World Series, we can now add another miracle for the ages: A politician demanding tighter money. We refer to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in a Berlin speech Tuesday rebuked the world's central bankers, notably including the U.S. Federal Reserve, for being too politically accommodating. Hallelujah, sister. (...) Notwithstanding Mr. Bernanke's "comfort" with his actions so far, the world is wondering when the Fed will start to remove the flood of money it has injected into the economy during the crisis. Mr. Bernanke says not to worry, as his mentor Alan Greenspan also did yesterday. But this is cold comfort given their earlier track record. The Fed's habit is to look at backward indicators, such as the cost-of-living index and the jobless rate, rather than at currency and commodity prices that can warn of asset bubbles and inflation ahead. This is precisely the mistake both men made in 2003, as the recently released Fed transcripts from that year illustrate. The warning that Mrs. Merkel -- and China and the financial markets -- is sounding is whether the Fed will have the political courage to start removing that liquidity even if the unemployment rate is high, and before it creates another mess.
To the Red Sox winning the World Series, we can now add another miracle for the ages: A politician demanding tighter money. We refer to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in a Berlin speech Tuesday rebuked the world's central bankers, notably including the U.S. Federal Reserve, for being too politically accommodating. Hallelujah, sister.
(...)
Notwithstanding Mr. Bernanke's "comfort" with his actions so far, the world is wondering when the Fed will start to remove the flood of money it has injected into the economy during the crisis. Mr. Bernanke says not to worry, as his mentor Alan Greenspan also did yesterday. But this is cold comfort given their earlier track record. The Fed's habit is to look at backward indicators, such as the cost-of-living index and the jobless rate, rather than at currency and commodity prices that can warn of asset bubbles and inflation ahead. This is precisely the mistake both men made in 2003, as the recently released Fed transcripts from that year illustrate. The warning that Mrs. Merkel -- and China and the financial markets -- is sounding is whether the Fed will have the political courage to start removing that liquidity even if the unemployment rate is high, and before it creates another mess.
Thanks. It's been a long day, and I needed a good laugh.
You really can't be serious bringing the Journal in this.
Yes, those great defenders of traditional conservatism at the WSJ.
Wow. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Now, as someone who knows plenty of stats, you also know that this is probably the single most dishonest, laughable graph ever published in a major newspaper. "If only the Dems would quit being a bunch of commies and cut corporate tax rates by ten points, the revenue would come pouring in. Just like Norway!
The Journal supported all of the adventures of Chimp McFlightsuit and Pencil Dick. It supported the tax cuts, the wars (and their privatization through mercenaries), the attempt to waste $2tn privatizing Social Security, and on and on.
If these guys aren't neolibs, I don't know who could possibly qualify anymore.
Deficit hawks? We'd have long since collapsed if we'd followed the WSJ. Those idiots are even more out to lunch than the last administration was. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
You may find it useful if you ever want to do this kind of exercise again.
Neolibs like Krugman, Stiglitz, Roubini, et al?
Yeah.... Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin