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Jerome, you keep getting hung up on these enormous numbers as though they automatically mean anything.  If the money doesn't make its way into the economy, it doesn't have any impact on inflation.  The Fed's been slashing rates for almost two years now, and prices are still down from a year ago and flat on a month-to-month basis.  And the only reason they're flat is because of the cigarette tax increases from SCHIP kicked in during the March and April periods.

I'm increasingly convinced -- as is, for the record, Paul Krugman -- that the hyperinflationist talk is largely -- but not entirely, and certainly not in Merkel's case -- fearmongering on the part of the people who made the mess to begin with, in an effort to stop governments from intervening to help people, and to drive up value to creditors.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 07:59:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Drew J Jones: I'm increasingly convinced -- as is, for the record, Paul Krugman -- that the hyperinflationist talk is largely -- but not entirely, and certainly not in Merkel's case -- fearmongering on the part of the people who made the mess to begin with, in an effort to stop governments from intervening to help people, and to drive up value to creditors.

Has that column been discussed here anywhere yet?

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 10:37:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  Here's the link.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 08:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We hadn't discussed it here on ET, no. Only linked to another discussion.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 7th, 2009 at 05:24:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The $13 trillion do mean somrthing: it's the size of the financial world losses that are being hidden, or taken over, by taxpayers.

That's money spent by the rich that is going to be repaid by all rather than by those that enjoyed it.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 12:20:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...to recover the riches we paid for, hey...

Patrice Ayme Patriceayme.com Patriceayme.wordpress.com http://tyranosopher.blogspot.com/
by Patrice Ayme on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 01:50:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The term you are looking for is "confiscate."

"Expropriate" implies compensation, which is counterproductive in this case.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:19:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Certainly  I want to confiscate... Seems to me ex-propriate was pretty clear, but OK...

Patrice Ayme Patriceayme.com Patriceayme.wordpress.com http://tyranosopher.blogspot.com/
by Patrice Ayme on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 07:18:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Buying shitpile at market would have been "expropiation", but it would also have bankrupted the banks because the market value was too low.

So instead shitpile is being bought from them at notional values... Ugh.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 7th, 2009 at 05:21:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, like I mentioned above, it's not really $13 trillion.  Of the $13 trillion committed by political authorities in the US, only $4.1 trillion has actually been spent.  Looking at the Bloomberg article you linked to above, it looks unlikely that much more of that committed amount ever will be spent. Only $1.7 trillion of the $7.6 trillion committed by the Fed has been spent so far, and when you look at the line items with committments outstanding, I just don't see where they are likely to be used. The FDIC commitments will also largely go unused as there are few remaining opportunities for major bankruptcies in American banks to use up that $2 trillion dollar commitment.  Only the fiscal part of this -- the US treasury -- is likely to be used and also increased in subsequent years.  That's the tax and borrow part, not the inflationary monetary expansion part.

So monetary expansion has been, and I think will continue to be, quite modest and still probably results in a net decrease in total public and private credit and purchasing power available to capitalists -- still a deflationary situation regarding asset prices.  

I think you have your banker hat on here when you should be using your economist hat.  Balance sheet entries do not say much about true levels of real goods and services, counterparty confidence, and purchasing power in an economy.  That requires economic intuition, not accounting intuition which you appear to be relying on too closely with this diary.  It's the same mistake conservatives like Merkel are making.  

That said, I think you're alluding to valid criticism of overspending in general and that is that it probably does matter what public funds are spent on, something that most Keynesian liberals don't accept.  Spending on investments that will save energy costs and increase human and social capital through education and institutional/infrastructure development and maintenance are likely to reduce future inflation rather than add to it.  There is some truth to the conservative point that the American economy recovered without inflation after WWII largely because its risky investment in destroying the rest of planet's capital paid off in a big way -- it was a major investment with quantifiable returns, not just digging holes as Keynes suggested was sufficient.

by santiago on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 02:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is nonsense. If the 13 trillion aren't really 13 trillion, then why bother making such a commitment in the first place?

You're arguing like a gambler who puts his house on the poker table but tells everyone it's just for show, as it's practically impossible that he could lose this round.



--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 05:19:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's for show. It's a way of saying 'Yes, we're good for this. No crisis is so big we can't afford to handle it.'

Which means people will keep buying the IOUs. For now.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 07:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem with this crisis are the IOUs in the first place. Too many people have issued IOUs, and can't repay them. Now the "solution" has been to issue further taxpayer IOUs to cover these bad IOUs. The lie is that these taxpayer funded IOUs are somehow fake or worthless.

Ask youself who is stupider: investors and creditors who accept worthless pretend IOUs to cover known bad IOUs, or taxpayers who believe that the IOUs their government has issued in their name are fake and will never be paid out when asked.

You can't have it both ways, either you "solve" the problem with real IOUs, or you issue fake IOUs and "solve" nothing, since everyone knows they aren't worth anything.

The point of real IOUs is that there is real risk attached to them. It doesn't do to hope that things will work out without anybody requiring payment.

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 08:22:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As you know, the betting strategy with the highest probability of winning in the end is "double or nothing".

It is, on average, a losing strategy, but if you're going to gamble...

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buitler

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 7th, 2009 at 05:22:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the expectation of gain, is like other strategies, exactly zero. What you presumably mean is that you get a (n-1)/n chance of "winning" 1, by betting n, with n being an exponential of 2 (and a 1/n chance of losing n)

So the question, as expected, is whether you win before you run out of liquidity...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 7th, 2009 at 08:24:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're both right. It's true that the probability of winning 1 more than the initial amount in your pocket is 1 (ie certain), and in fact it is certain that this will occur within a finite number of bets. Moreover, by changing the monetary units, or by increasing the rate of growth of the bets, even bigger amounts can be won per bet, so the probability is maximal but the strategy is of course not unique.

However, the expected number of bets to achieve the outcome is infinite, since the strategy is nonintegrable, and while one game might(!) let you win 1 with certainty, in repeated games you will run out of money, or if you have infinite funds, you will fail to achieve any strictly positive rate of winnings in the long run (and depending on how you compute the rate of winnings, you could fail to achieve any finite negative rate of winnings either, ie the losses can't be usefully limited).

--
$E(X_t|F_s) = X_s,\quad t > s$

by martingale on Mon Jun 8th, 2009 at 05:12:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
are the traditional conservatives. Those that are not are the neolibs. It's the neolibs that have set policy in recent years.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 12:21:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It would seem prudent to be concerned about both inflation and deflation, but is important to keep in mind what is the most pressing current problem without forgetting and leaving ourselves helpless in the face of the following problem.  I would be much happier were the USA spending $Trillions more on alternative energy investments and several times that investment less on guarantees to the banking sector.

What is needed is concerted effort to sever the hands of dying financial institutions that are currently around the neck of the entire US society before that sector drags us all into an early grave.  It is NOT a question of spending or guarantees per se, but rather a question of the long term effectiveness of that spending and those guarantees and the constraints they place on future policy.  See the second link in my comment down thread.  It is to a paper by Simon Johnson showing the consequences of such decisions.  See also the post based on Edward Harrison below.  We can say "Fuck inflation", but we had better be prepared to be well and truly fucked by inflation if we are unprepared when recovery is underway.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 01:18:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For sure. Inflation isn't the problem, and since the 70s - when it was linked to oil prices anyway - it never really has been.

The problem is wealth concentration. What the US has now is a ghost economy, populated entirely by chimeras, supported by a huge pile of government-backed 'Would I lie to you?'

But there's no foundation. So the real economy will remain in depression while the ghost economy resumes modest growth - for a while, until the 'Would I lie to you?' runs out.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 07:23:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The rating for Jerome's "traditional conservatives" comment was intended to be a 4.  Grrr, why can't those who make a rating edit that rating?  At least then we could clean up after ourselves.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 01:25:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
!? Of course you can change your rating!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 01:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So one can!  I had somewhere gotten the opposite idea.  Thanks.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 02:57:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What one can't do is to revert a rating to none (no rating).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jun 3rd, 2009 at 03:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's always been an interesting fight in the oped pages of the WSJ between the neolibs and the traditional conservatives.

Here's a traditional conservative's reaction:


Merkel for the Fed
The German leader's welcome rebuke to central bankers.

To the Red Sox winning the World Series, we can now add another miracle for the ages: A politician demanding tighter money. We refer to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who in a Berlin speech Tuesday rebuked the world's central bankers, notably including the U.S. Federal Reserve, for being too politically accommodating. Hallelujah, sister.

(...)

Notwithstanding Mr. Bernanke's "comfort" with his actions so far, the world is wondering when the Fed will start to remove the flood of money it has injected into the economy during the crisis. Mr. Bernanke says not to worry, as his mentor Alan Greenspan also did yesterday. But this is cold comfort given their earlier track record. The Fed's habit is to look at backward indicators, such as the cost-of-living index and the jobless rate, rather than at currency and commodity prices that can warn of asset bubbles and inflation ahead. This is precisely the mistake both men made in 2003, as the recently released Fed transcripts from that year illustrate. The warning that Mrs. Merkel -- and China and the financial markets -- is sounding is whether the Fed will have the political courage to start removing that liquidity even if the unemployment rate is high, and before it creates another mess.



In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 03:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

Thanks.  It's been a long day, and I needed a good laugh.

You really can't be serious bringing the Journal in this.

Yes, those great defenders of traditional conservatism at the WSJ.

Wow.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 08:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they've kept on publishing "deficit hawk" conservatives throughout the Bush years, which were often stingingly critical of Bush's budget practices. These, at least, have some claim to intellectual consistency, and they did stand out in the WSJ pages back then (now, of course, they are an easy source of attacks on Obama, and they will naturally claim that this year's deficits' are Obama's alone)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 01:43:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, but no: That's utter nonsense, J.  The WSJ was not run by deficit hawks.  It's been run by batshit crazy supply-siders the entire time.  Do you not remember their "Laffer Curve" column?

Now, as someone who knows plenty of stats, you also know that this is probably the single most dishonest, laughable graph ever published in a major newspaper.  "If only the Dems would quit being a bunch of commies and cut corporate tax rates by ten points, the revenue would come pouring in.  Just like Norway!

The Journal supported all of the adventures of Chimp McFlightsuit and Pencil Dick.  It supported the tax cuts, the wars (and their privatization through mercenaries), the attempt to waste $2tn privatizing Social Security, and on and on.

If these guys aren't neolibs, I don't know who could possibly qualify anymore.

Deficit hawks?  We'd have long since collapsed if we'd followed the WSJ.  Those idiots are even more out to lunch than the last administration was.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 08:50:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I fully agree on the overall diagnosis, but I maintain that they allowed a persistent minority voice (the "traditional conservative") to express itself on a fairly regular basis - enough to say that these conservatives still existed, but obviously not enough to claim that they had any influence on Republican thought or policies.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 09:32:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a similar fashion, Barron's would run bearish contrarian pieces by Alan Abelson while most of the rest of the weekly was roaringly bullish.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 11:23:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
looking at that curve more closely, what's most striking is how close to each other the US and France are on it.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 03:52:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I deconstructed that graph here.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 6th, 2009 at 06:18:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I made a small data extractor, once upon a time. It is now located here: Data Extractor. It is manual. I.e. you have to click axis limits to set the scale, and then click the datapoints to get their coordinates.

You may find it useful if you ever want to do this kind of exercise again.

by someone (s0me1smail(a)gmail(d)com) on Sat Jun 6th, 2009 at 09:06:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]


If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jun 6th, 2009 at 03:49:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Traditional conservatives like the WSJ, the Mises Institute, Peter Schiff, et al?

Neolibs like Krugman, Stiglitz, Roubini, et al?

Yeah....

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Thu Jun 4th, 2009 at 08:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
are not neolibs, but they are still mainstream economists in various ways, starting with their insufficient attention to the incomes problem.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 01:47:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Come on now.  Krugman's been writing entire books, to say nothing of his columns, on the income problem for going on twenty years.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 09:35:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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