Were it to join the PSE, it could provoke a break-up. At the same time Word from Above might order to stay in, thus contaminating the PSE with pata-leftist Catholicism, that is when the vote comes on crucial issues, the PD in Europe might break ranks in order to keep its chimeric identity.
The projections on that site are based on a 39% vote for the Pdl. The latest projections have it at 35%.