On Friday, a Socialist campaign activist was knocked down while he was putting up a poster. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
* Turnout: 36.28% (-2.22)
It is very very little consolation that a Green party achieved its best results ever (with my vote). *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
In 1989, on the road towards consenting to multi-party democracy, the ruling party then called the Hungarian Socialist Workers' Party held a congress, on which the majority voted to re-form the party as today's Hungarian Socialist Party. However, a minority of diehards chose to go on under the old name. (Since then, there have been a few name changes, but what the Socialists dropped, "Worker", was always part of it.)
While this party adopted some Eurocommunist and progressive rhetoric through the years, it still concerns itself mostly with guarding the good memory of Kádár. (I.e. they get into the news most often when protesting on his birthday or at his grave or defend his 1956 record and such.)
Worse, the party looks like the personal fiefdom of its leader (in office ever since 1989), who gained some quite bad reputation by cozying up to dictators: so for example, during the coup against Gorbachev, he flew to Moscow to be the first to pledge loyalty to the coup leaders; and he got along with ol' Saddam (he was in reality what all other anti-war people were only in the accusations of the warbots).
In recent years, the party had one positive (from my viewpoint positive) campaign of note: that for a referendum against healthcare privatisation a few years ago. However, back then, right-populist Fidesz hijacked that campaign, ultimately leading to a failure of the referendum on turnout. Yet, later on, the Workers' Party did not go out of the way of tactical cooperation with Fidesz and even the far-right on more social-themed campaigns.
In the current elections, the one Workers' Party TV spot I saw was against my liking: they talked about tackling the economic crisis by way of protectionism, and that in nationalist tones -- were they trying to steal votes from Jobbik?... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
EPP-ED: 36 seats ALDE: 6 seats UEN: 8 seats non-inscrits: 22 seats
(my guess is PD will join the PES, but apparently they're undecided)
Were it to join the PSE, it could provoke a break-up. At the same time Word from Above might order to stay in, thus contaminating the PSE with pata-leftist Catholicism, that is when the vote comes on crucial issues, the PD in Europe might break ranks in order to keep its chimeric identity.
The projections on that site are based on a 39% vote for the Pdl. The latest projections have it at 35%.
EPP-ED: 34 seats ALDE: 7 seats UEN: 8 seats non-inscrits: 23 seats
Reflects the poor showing of Woody's personal political entity, especially in Sicily where Lombardo set out to screw him. A falling out of thieves.
PES: (36%-39.5%) 8 seats EPP-ED (30-33%) 7 seats GUE/NGL (8-10%) 2 seats Uncommited (15-19%) 5 seats
Of the uncommitted parties there is one left party (2 seats), one orthodox christian party (2 seats) and one green party (1 seat). I guess the left party will end up sitting either with the Greens-EFA or GUE/NGL and that the green party will join the Greens-EFA. The christians could end up joining IND-DEM.
So we have:
PES: (36%-39.5%) 8 seats EPP-ED (30-33%) 7 seats GUE/NGL (8-10%) 2 seats IND-DEM (5.3-7%) 2 seats Greens-EFA (4.3-6.4%) 1 seat Uncommitted (4.3-7.2%) 2 seats
All provisional, of course.
SYRIZA? Aint't it part of GUE/NGL? (I counted them there anyway.) *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Abstention here reached record levels, around 38%, (officially it's close to 50% but that's artificial), since the elections fell on a three-day weekend, sunny and hot, the first chance for a decent summer break. The numbers aren't out yet but probably less than half of the 18-35 age group showed up to vote. This age group's no-show was a disaster for SYRIZA and the Greens, both of which expected better results (and being immersed over the past few weeks in the SYRIZA campaign, I can tell you that despite the small increase from 2004, the mood was desolate).
The Far-right thing is really worrying, there is a huge anti-immigrant backlash in the country, especially in Athens and this result turns the whole thing into a major issue. LAOS was the biggest far-right party, but if you add them, wit various small nationalist and fascist groups, they add up to 9%. 0.5% went to a nazi group. These are real nazis with funny salutes and deadly violent, showing up in various neighbourhoods and playing police: basically beating up immigrants.
The socialists were 4,5 points ahead of New Democracy, the ruling conservatives, which is decent for them and might possibly lead to early elections in October, or certainly March. I hope the weather is uninspiring when this happens. The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
EPP-ED: 3 seats PES: 1 seat ALDE: 1 seat Greens-EFA: 1 seat
Exit polls for parties likely to pass the 4% limit: Il Popolo della Libertà 39-43% Partito Democratico 27-31% Di Pietro Italia dei Valori 5-8% Lega Nord 6,5-10,5% Unione di Centro 3,7-5,7%
It appears Lechergate has not eroded the hold of Berlusconi's personal political entity. The values reflect that the situation has not changed in two weeks.
Sky now has their estimates up:
Il Popolo della Libertà 39% Partito Democratico 27,5% Di Pietro Italia dei Valori 7,8% Lega Nord 9,5% Unione di Centro 5,3%
These estimates exclude representation of the cluster of leftist parties that have fragmented since the last general elections. It's sad to see some valid politicians such as Claudio Fava or Nichi Vendola excluded but it simply repeats a secular problem within the left: protaganism.
The main opposition party, the Democratic Party, appears to hold grounds at 27%.
Comparisons are difficult to make with the previous European elections as the Left was united under a large coalition. 7 to 8% of the votes have been dispersed this time in small asteroid parties on the left.
The real winners in this contest are Di Pietro and Lega Nord.
Projections based on Sky-RAI at 1h20 Il Popolo della Libertà 35-36% Partito Democratico 26,5-27,2% Di Pietro Italia dei Valori 8-8,3% Lega Nord 9,5-9,8% Unione di Centro 6%
As for Italy, there are local realities that have penalized Berlusconi's personal political entity, the Pdl. In Sicily the tactics of Governor Lombardo have caused a strong showing of the autonomists- over 12%. However on the national level this is not enough to gain a seat in Strasbourg. While the Pdl is penalized, the vote nevertheless shows an unequivocal rightwing turn not only in the islands but throughout Southern Italy. There the Pdl has a showing from 42 to 48% with the traditional exception of the Basilicata. The strong showing there is due to the insignificance of autonomist movements that characterize Northern Italy and the islands. One may not exclude a certain macho vote that identifies itself with Woody's sexual philandering.
The Pd has held its position, perhaps a sign that its collapse under Veltroni has stopped. It is however in a difficult situation to form alliances on a national level with two small but significant parties on either side- Di Pietro's Idv against Casini's Christian Democrat remake. The asteroid parties on the Left have disappeared from any elective role yet persist in presenting themselves with a fiefdom mentality rather than form a pragmatic coalition. Their insistence on disunity is a major voter drain for the left- on the order of 8%.
While the far left torments itself over indistinguishable nuances, arcane for almost all voters, the right wing has no problem kissing up to a demagogic blob of a party, a probable symptom of their intellectual maturity. The only real problem on the right is represented by autonomist movements. But Berlusconi has demonstrated that he can metabolize them quite well when not outright compete with them in racist demagogy.
Voter participation: 20.91%. For comparison, the 2004 EP election saw 48.38% participation. The two rounds of the National Parliament election saw 48.59% and 32.05% participation.
