David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff flagged a different way of looking at US unemployment figures on Monday; rather than noting the slowing rise in unemployment, he pointed in the direction of the number of people employed part-time and average hours worked. In which case the two following trends can be observed:
David Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff flagged a different way of looking at US unemployment figures on Monday; rather than noting the slowing rise in unemployment, he pointed in the direction of the number of people employed part-time and average hours worked.
In which case the two following trends can be observed:
The part-timezation effect of slowing wage growth and declining hours has had one major impact on corporate America, says Rosenberg: a decreasing wage bill. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of personal income and aggregate demand, which are needed to grow top-line revenues. What it equals -- in no uncertain terms according to Rosenberg -- is a clear and ongoing `deflation alert'. A fact currently being ignored by the bond markets.
The part-timezation effect of slowing wage growth and declining hours has had one major impact on corporate America, says Rosenberg: a decreasing wage bill. Unfortunately, this comes at the expense of personal income and aggregate demand, which are needed to grow top-line revenues.
What it equals -- in no uncertain terms according to Rosenberg -- is a clear and ongoing `deflation alert'. A fact currently being ignored by the bond markets.
So it's not wages or industrial capacity that matters, it's liquidity slushing around, and that's plentiful. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
