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by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 10:05:38 AM EST
Ahmedinejad wins disputed Iran vote, crowds clash | International | Reuters

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad won re-election by a thumping margin, official figures showed Saturday, but his moderate challenger rejected the tally as a "dangerous charade" that could lead to tyranny.

The scale of Ahmadinejad's victory -- he took nearly twice as many votes as former Prime Minister Mirhossein Mousavi with counting almost complete after Friday's poll -- upset widespread expectations that the race would at least go to a second round.

Interior Minister Sadeq Mahsouli said Ahmadinejad won 62.6 percent of the vote and Mousavi 33.75 percent. Turnout was a record 85 percent of eligible voters.

Mousavi protested against what he said were many obvious violations.

"I'm warning I will not surrender to this dangerous charade. The result of such performance by some officials will jeopardize the pillars of the Islamic Republic and will establish tyranny," Mousavi said in a statement made available to Reuters.

He had been due to hold a news conference, but police at the building turned journalists away, saying it was canceled.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 11:28:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing. The people who count the votes decide everything."

Good Old Uncle Joe Stalin

What a kidder.

In the end, might makes right. Nothing has changed since the caveman.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 04:11:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen

  1. It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province.

  2. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.)

(...)

From Juan Cole.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 07:22:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

From Andrew Sullivan


Yes, this obviously was a "divine assessment". They didn't even attempt to disguise the fraud. Which, to me, tells me they panicked. This graph is a red flag to Iran and the world.


In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 07:57:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The first results of an entirely hand count (expected to take at least 24 hours) were announced by the Ahmadinejad camp within one hour of polling stations officially closing - even as some remained open to accommodate long queues.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 08:08:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting comments by Parviz
by det on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 08:39:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.  And, really, this isn't a "western media" thing.  The western media immediately went along with the Interior Ministry's stated result.  It's the blogosphere, working off on-the-ground reports from regular Iranians, along with reports by some reporters like Christiane Amanpour, that's kept this story alive in the western media.

Unless by "western media" we mean Andrew Sullivan and the Washington Note blog.

Look at CNN: Almost no coverage.  Then look at Daily Kos: Non-stop coverage.  Regardless of the actual result, it's absolutely embarrassing, and b is right to get chewed out.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:02:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems the "western media" thing comes from Bernard of Moon of Alabama.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:15:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bernhard. (= "b")
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:49:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah. Mind you, if I was running a news org the story would be "truth hidden under giant steaming pile of propaganda".
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:03:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, no doubt about it.  I'm just saying that the only powerful figures in The West(TM) who seem to not accept Ammadinnerjacket's reelection are the Canadian Foreign Minister and the Obama administration.  The press here has completely bought the idea that the Iranian wingers have won in a landslide.

Which should shock no one.  The neocons made quite clear they were rooting for Shithead, and their dogs in the press went to fetch as soon as the stick was thrown.

Obviously folks like Olbermann and Maddow view it with suspicion, but they're of course not an accurate representation of the media.

Even supposedly respectable news orgs like the Gaurniad, the Indie and the Beeb have eaten up Khamenei's bullshit.

I think Bernard at MoA is, by any reasonable viewer's eye, completely full of shit.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:29:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't tell who's full of shit on this one: who's neutral?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:54:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
is certainly worth a read.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:06:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's another thing, and it didn't occur to me on election night: No way did they hand count all of these ballots in so short a time period.  I don't care how many beancounters you've got, you can't count tens of millions of ballots in a matter of two hours by hand.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 08:57:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, counting ballots is very highly parallelisable, so that's actually not all that hard, with the proper organizations. What's really hard is counting ballots that have not yet been cast.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 08:59:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on how many precincts you have. Spain counts its ballots very quickly because working at the polls is like jury duty and so the number of voters per table is low and  it is possible to count the ballots at each table rather quickly.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:01:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True, but my understanding is that the Interior Ministry's own estimate was that it would take 24 hours.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:04:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because the Iranian count is centralised, apparently.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 09:14:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is what I read too...

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:42:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In a Danish election, ballots are normally counted no more than three hours after polling stations close, if everything goes off without a hitch. Of course, it almost never does, but the margins of error are rarely enough to shift more than one or two seats - certainly not anything on the order of more than one percentage point.

Ballots are usually recounted centrally on the following day (if the margin between any two seats is below a certain number of votes, which it almost invariably is when you do d'Hondt for the next best thing to three hundred seats...).

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 03:36:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That graph doesn't tell you anything.  You could set it up in any election anywhere.

I believe Nate or one of the other stats gurus of the blogosphere debunked it last night using the 2008 American election (releasing results in six waves, alphabetically).

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 08:55:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be this
by det on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 10:37:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See my chart in a parallel comment.

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:50:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The debunking has been debated, because while it would make sense to get very close estimates if you got random samples added up at different times, in this case they brought in data from very differet nregions in lumps (and there are, or should have been, significant regional variations in the voting)

And there are th screen captures discussed here

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 12:55:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But what was plotted were not the lumps, but the cumulative totals. You cannot run a linear regression on the cumulative totals, but only on the lumps...

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you plot the lumps, you get this:

Which is much more noisy than the cumulative totals.

It is well known you cannot apply linear regression to a time series, which is what this is, but only to the successive differences (the "lumps").

The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:42:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the null hypothesis here? How likely is the observed R2 value?

Beware of statistical tests without an explicit hypothesis or model.


The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:49:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ZIMBABWE: Tsvangirai Gets Obama's Seal of Approval
WASHINGTON, Jun 12 (IPS) - Zimbabwean Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai received U.S. President Barack Obama's seal of approval and a promise of 73 million dollars in education, health, and governance-related assistance after a mid-afternoon meeting at the White House here Friday.

Emerging from the talks, Obama expressed "extraordinary admiration for the courage [and] the tenacity that the prime minister has shown in navigating through some difficult political times."

At the same time, he indicated that Washington is not yet prepared to substantially ease nine-year-old sanctions directed primarily against Zimbabwe's president, Robert Mugabe, and his top military and political aides, with whom Tsvangirai has been engaged in an uneasy power-sharing agreement since February.

"I have committed 73 million dollars in assistance to Zimbabwe," he said, adding, however, that none of that money will "be going to the government directly because we continue to be concerned about consolidating democracy, human rights and rule of law, but it will be going directly to the people in Zimbabwe."

Despite its not being channeled through the government, he said, "I think (the aid) can be of assistance to the prime minister in his efforts."

At the same time, Obama took a slap at Mugabe, who has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron hand since its independence nearly 30 years ago.

"President Mugabe - I think I've made my views clear - has not acted all the time in the best interest of the Zimbabwean people and has been resistant to the kinds of democratic changes that need to take place," he said, noting Tsvangirai had made "progress" in leading his country out of a "very dark and difficult period politically".
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 11:38:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
MIDEAST: Israel Tightens Stranglehold in East Jerusalem
...this morning there's no relief on the horizon for Palestinians hoping to ease their desperate housing shortage. Only a day earlier, employees of Jerusalem's Israeli-run municipality handed house demolition orders to three more families in the Al-Bustan area of Silwan, which lies alongside Wadi Qadoum and abuts the walls of the Old City. All of the homes in Al-Bustan - 90 in total - are slated for demolition, despite ongoing negotiations between residents and City Hall.

There is even more cause for Palestinian alarm at Israeli intentions. Eli Yishai, the interior minister in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right- wing government, has reportedly instructed ministry employees to nix a new master plan for the city on the ground that it allocates too much land for the construction of Palestinian homes.

The master plan, on which dozens of Israeli architects and town planners worked for several years, was intended to outline the city's development over the next few decades and to remedy a situation in which, since 1959, Jerusalem has not been developed according to a comprehensive agenda.

Palestinians have long had difficulty getting permits to build even on their own property. The plan, if implemented, would allow increased building in the eastern part of the city, including 13,500 more housing units for the city's Palestinians.

The outline of the plan was recently submitted to the interior ministry for approval, but city officials discovered this week that Yishai had ordered the plan shelved. Instead, he threw his support behind another programme, drafted in 2000, which set aside considerably less area for new Palestinian building.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 11:41:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oy. It just doesn't stop.

The karma kickback is going to be exponential.

Never underestimate their intelligence, always underestimate their knowledge.

Frank Delaney ~ Ireland

by siegestate (siegestate or beyondwarispeace.com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 03:12:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Cairo, Obama omitted one detail | Star Tribune - Commentary

... The president never said a word about ... about any of the other 800,000 or so Jews born in the Middle East who fled the Arab and Muslim world or who were summarily expelled for being Jewish in the 20th century. <...>

... he failed to remind the Egyptians in his audience that until 50 years ago a strong and vibrant Jewish community thrived in their midst. Or that many of Egypt's finest hospitals and other institutions were founded and financed by Jews. It is a shame that he did not remind the Egyptians in the audience of this, because, in most cases -- and especially among those younger than 50 -- their memory banks have been conveniently expunged of deadweight and guilt. They have no recollections of Jews. <...>

It is strange that our president, a man so versed in history and so committed to the truth, should have omitted mentioning the Jews of Egypt. He either forgot, or just didn't know, or just thought it wasn't expedient or appropriate for this venue. But for him to speak in Cairo of a shared effort "to find common ground ... and to respect the dignity of all human beings" without mentioning people in my position would be like his speaking to the residents of Berlin about the future of Germany and forgetting to mention a small detail called World War II.



Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.
by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 03:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually I would think that a conversation about Berlin's future would do best if it omitted WW2.
by paving on Sat Jun 13th, 2009 at 05:17:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is wrapping yourself in victimisation. Yes, the jews were expelled by Nasser after 1952. So were every other allegedly non-Egyptian individuals. Nassers revolution was highly nationalistic and all "foreigners", however many generations entrenched in Egyptian society, were stripped of their possessions and holdings and thrown out of the country.

those thrown out who were non-Jewish included Badia Masabni, the creator of modern bellydane and Nadia gamal, one of it's most internationally reknowned practitioners.

So this one isn't about the jews and claiming it was is simply disingenuous.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 01:09:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen: and all "foreigners", however many generations entrenched in Egyptian society, were stripped of their possessions and holdings and thrown out of the country.

How different is this from the Nazi treatment of Jews, Poles, Gypsies, homosexuals, Communists, etc.?  Just because multiple categories of "undesirables" were persecuted does not mean injustices were committed against specific groups qua those groups.

History of the Jews in Egypt - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The Lavon Affair of 1954, in which an Israeli sabotage operation designed to discredit Gamal Abdel Nasser and perhaps also to derail secret negotiations with Egypt proposed by Moshe Sharett, blew up Western targets, led to deeper distrust of Jews, from whose community key agents in the operation had been recruited. In his summing up statement Fu'ad al-Digwi, the prosecutor at their trial, repeated the official government stance:

'The Jews of Egypt are living among us and are sons of Egypt. Egypt makes no difference between its sons whether Moslems, Christians, or Jews. These defendants happen to be Jews who reside in Egypt, but we are trying them because they committed crimes against Egypt, although they are Egypt's sons.'[24]

In the immediate aftermath of trilateral invasion during the Suez Crisis of 1956, on November 23 by Britain France and Israel, a proclamation was issued stating that 'all Jews are Zionists and enemies of the state', and it promised that they would be soon expelled. Some 25,000 Jews, almost half of the Jewish community left, mainly for Europe, the United States and South America, but some also emigrated to Israel, after being forced to sign declarations that they were leaving voluntarily, and agreed with the confiscation of their assets. Some 1,000 more Jews were imprisoned. Similar measures were enacted against British and French nationals in retaliation for the invasion. In Joel Beinin's summary: "Between 1919 and 1956, the entire Egyptian Jewish community, like the Cicurel firm, was transformed from a national asset into a fifth column."[25]

If accurate, I hardly think this writer is "wrapping himself in victimization": Quite simply, he was victimized as a Jew and because he was a Jew, as were his fellow Jews expelled from Egypt.

Truth unfolds in time through a communal process.

by marco (cowannar at gmail punkt com) on Sun Jun 14th, 2009 at 11:51:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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