Top Pieces of Evidence that the Iranian Presidential Election Was Stolen It is claimed that Ahmadinejad won the city of Tabriz with 57%. His main opponent, Mir Hossein Mousavi, is an Azeri from Azerbaijan province, of which Tabriz is the capital. Mousavi, according to such polls as exist in Iran and widespread anecdotal evidence, did better in cities and is popular in Azerbaijan. Certainly, his rallies there were very well attended. So for an Azeri urban center to go so heavily for Ahmadinejad just makes no sense. In past elections, Azeris voted disproportionately for even minor presidential candidates who hailed from that province. Ahmadinejad is claimed to have taken Tehran by over 50%. Again, he is not popular in the cities, even, as he claims, in the poor neighborhoods, in part because his policies have produced high inflation and high unemployment. That he should have won Tehran is so unlikely as to raise real questions about these numbers. [Ahmadinejad is widely thought only to have won Tehran in 2005 because the pro-reform groups were discouraged and stayed home rather than voting.) (...)
From Juan Cole. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
From Andrew Sullivan
Yes, this obviously was a "divine assessment". They didn't even attempt to disguise the fraud. Which, to me, tells me they panicked. This graph is a red flag to Iran and the world.
Unless by "western media" we mean Andrew Sullivan and the Washington Note blog.
Look at CNN: Almost no coverage. Then look at Daily Kos: Non-stop coverage. Regardless of the actual result, it's absolutely embarrassing, and b is right to get chewed out. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Which should shock no one. The neocons made quite clear they were rooting for Shithead, and their dogs in the press went to fetch as soon as the stick was thrown.
Obviously folks like Olbermann and Maddow view it with suspicion, but they're of course not an accurate representation of the media.
Even supposedly respectable news orgs like the Gaurniad, the Indie and the Beeb have eaten up Khamenei's bullshit.
I think Bernard at MoA is, by any reasonable viewer's eye, completely full of shit. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
Ballots are usually recounted centrally on the following day (if the margin between any two seats is below a certain number of votes, which it almost invariably is when you do d'Hondt for the next best thing to three hundred seats...).
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
I believe Nate or one of the other stats gurus of the blogosphere debunked it last night using the 2008 American election (releasing results in six waves, alphabetically). Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
And there are th screen captures discussed here In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
Which is much more noisy than the cumulative totals.
It is well known you cannot apply linear regression to a time series, which is what this is, but only to the successive differences (the "lumps"). The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
Beware of statistical tests without an explicit hypothesis or model. The brainless should not be in banking. — Willem Buiter
