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There are fewer new unemployed than expected (350k vs 530k) and yet the unemployment rate has jumped by more than expected (to 9.4% vs 9.2%)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 11:06:51 AM EST
This can happen if people have dropped out of the labour market without claiming unemployment status (since the unemployment rate is the proportion of officially unemployed in the labour force: if you've given up on the chance of finding a job, you're not in the labour force).
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 11:11:13 AM EST
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 Rajesh (homepage, profile)  wrote on Fri, 6/5/2009 - 6:00 am
Birth/death model added 220k jobs: I guess a lot of Chrysler workers suddenly opened up new businesses. Who knew they were such go-getters.

har har har

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 12:07:03 PM EST
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by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 04:05:49 PM EST
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Alan Abelson in Barron's has long cast cynical aspersions at the BDM, suggesting that these "adjustments" might be used to water "green shoots."

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 6th, 2009 at 12:25:03 AM EST
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It would actually imply the opposite if you were looking at it from that angle -- that people are actually reentering the labor force.  Normally you see unemployment jump towards the end of a recession.

That's not to say that's what's going on here.  I would've expected it a little farther down the road.

Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin

by Drew J Jones (myfriends@thisispancakes.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 04:08:53 PM EST
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People can only reenter the labour force if they get a job or sign on as unemployed. A rise in the unemployment rate would indicate newcomers (ie who were not previously working or officially unemployed) were claiming unemployment status. It's possible but not so likely.

It's true otoh that previously employed or unemployed persons leaving the labour force en masse because they don't consider they have any chance of finding a job (my hypothesis) is possible but not so likely.

MT's suggestion, that "phantom" jobs are added by the birth/death model, would increase the labour force (on the jobholder side), and therefore tend to decrease the unemployment rate.

Maybe Jérôme's right and the stats are just surprising.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 6th, 2009 at 04:21:21 AM EST
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Whicxh economic region? Eureozone?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 01:13:05 PM EST
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No, US.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 05:08:07 PM EST
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Now, really... how to guess, on this blog...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jun 5th, 2009 at 05:09:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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