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We're long past peak fish. As in, free-swimming saltwater fish. As Mr. Diamond points out in his Collapse book (I should buy a copy to keep for reference), stocks of large meat eating fish (as in, tuna, halibut, salmon) commonly get depleted by over 75% within a few years of the start of industrial fishing.

The question is whether enough fishery stocks can survive at a level that allows them to recover before global warming does them in and causes a radical shift in the entire ocean ecosystem.

by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 14th, 2009 at 05:15:08 PM EST
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Plus, this will hit the world's poorest hardest. That's the usual story with climate change, but... also Russia.

New Study First To Identify National Economies That Are Likely To Suffer Most As Climate Change Imperils Fisheries

With climate change threatening to ruin ocean reefs, push salt water into freshwater habitats and produce more coastal storms, millions of struggling people in fishery-dependent nations of Africa, Asia and South America could face unprecedented hardship, according to a new study published today in the February issue of the peer-reviewed journal Fish and Fisheries. The study by a team of scientists at The WorldFish Center, the University of East Anglia, Simon Fraser University, the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, the University of Bremen, and the Mekong River Commission is the first to identify individual nations that are "highly vulnerable" to the impact of climate change on fisheries. WorldFish is one of 15 centers supported by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR).

New findings on climate change and fisheries

The disturbing results demonstrate for the first time:

  • There will be a large-scale re-distribution of species, with most moving towards the Pole
  • On average, fish are likely to shift their distribution by more than 40km per decade and there will be an increasing abundance of more southern species
  • Developing countries in the tropics will suffer the biggest loss in catch
  • [...]
  • The invasion and local extinction of species may disrupt marine ecosystems and biodiversity

"Our research shows that the impact of climate change on marine biodiversity and fisheries is going to be huge," said Dr Cheung. "We must act now to adapt our fisheries management and conservation policies to minimise harm to marine life and to our society.

And that's from a quantitative model, which could be optimistic. Or pessimistic. Still, there's a large potential for [nanne's Crystal Ball of Doom™ Technology] here.
by nanne (zwaerdenmaecker@gmail.com) on Tue Jul 14th, 2009 at 06:06:17 PM EST
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