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The ugly facts are that there can be no durable recovery in the economy until the excess capacity is removed, since there are no huge productivity boosters on the horizon, the only other way you can grow demand (that is, you must boost not only GDP-per-capita but more importantly per-capita income so that true demand is generated) is to reduce the debt load in the system.



"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
by Melanchthon on Wed Jul 15th, 2009 at 02:56:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By this time in the Great Depression of the 1930s most of the bad debt had been written down.  Lots of damage had been done in the process, but the economy did not have a millstone of debt around its neck as it does today.  It seems to me that, before we can even worry about what level of capacity is excess, we have to deal directly with debt.  Wm Buiter's call for a jubilee may have been seen as facetious, but it may be the best way out.

Still, all efforts at a solution appear to be directed to hiding the extend to the problem, in the hope that those who brought us this disaster can be made whole, even if it is at the expense of everyone else.  That is trying to squeeze blood out of turnips and is doomed.  But I agree that consumers will need more income in order to sustain a recovery---after the debt has been dealt with.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 15th, 2009 at 11:26:55 PM EST
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