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John Rentoul - Lib Dems on the march
The Liberal Democrats are within one percentage point of Labour in tomorrow's ComRes poll for The Independent on Sunday.


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 02:45:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that because the Lib Dems are up or Labour is down?

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 02:56:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A combination, plus all the smaller parties that had a boost from the European Elections are now slipping back, and the LibDems are hoovering up the protest votes.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:02:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hung parliament FTW!

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well theres usually a 3 or 4 percent swing to the Lib Dems from both of the other 2 parties during the course of the general election campaign which if you let the situation slip another couple of percentage points from the current situation between the opposition parties, still gives roughly a 50 seat advantage to the tories. It would put the LibDems within about 20 seats of becoming the official opposition, having pushed Labour into 3rd place.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:22:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
still gives roughly a 50 seat advantage to the tories

Is that a 50-seat plurality or a 50-seat majority?

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:44:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thats a 50 seat absolute majority, over the entirety of all other parties put together. If it got just into the  narrowly hung parliament, where the Ulster Unionists were the extra lump to push the Tories over the top, then that I think could be the Biggest threat to the NI peace process.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jul 18th, 2009 at 03:50:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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