This is fun!
First, let's portray realists as a vanguard who are brave enough to face the hard choices that ordinary people just don't have the guts for.
Second, let's make a list of assertions, with our conclusion as the fifth assertion as if it followed from the other four. For extra credit, let's call our conclusion a fact in advance of demonstrating it.
Three, profit! </post>
Now, questions.
0. Which meaning of "realist" are you using?
1. What level of military strength is required for "seriousness"? Enough to make it too expensive to conquer you? Enough to fight wars on three fronts at a time? Enough to destroy the planet? Why is it not possible to be taken seriously if you're not militarily strong?
2. People with assault rifles need to worry about people with spears when they engage them on their own territory.
3. Since when was "Great Britain" a "Great Power"?
Don't mistake Great Power status for superpower status (or some intermediate between great and super power), which Britain lost in 1956. Or rather after WW2 except it didn't show until 1956. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
If you want to be taken seriously as a regional player, you need be strong enough to influence the region. If you want to be taken serious globally you also need to be able to project power globally.
But at the end of the day when you are faced with hard power you will always need hard power of your own. Angry letters, Big Macs and MTV videos will not stop a motorized rifle division. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
See Afghanistan, Iraq, Iran, Cuba, Chile, Congo... The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
Power, by the way, is often defined as being able to force others to do things they don't want to, which fits pretty well into your quote below.
Great powers don't face each other with motorised divisions. They use them to bully smaller, weaker states.
Bully, of course, is one oway of putting it. Influencing is another. Or reacting to the actions of other powers, be they great, small, or regional great powers. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Bully, of course, is one oway of putting it. Influencing is another.
What's surreal is that the invasion of one of the smallest and weakest countries in the world is being justified by some of the largest and most powerful countries in the world as a defensive military action.
How would Afghanistan need to behave to reassure the world's top superpowers that it has no intent to annex them?
How creating failed states (as in Iraq: Saddam's was authoritarian but definitely not a failed state) escapes me. Afghanistan also became a failed state in the 1980's and the US activity in both Afghanistan and Pakistan since then has contributed decisively to Afghanistan becoming a safe haven for terrorists. The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
But if terrrrism is being promoted - which it is - that implies that US foreign policy is stupid and insane. Or that it actively wants to promote terrorism. Or that it needs a war for domestic reasons.
Or possibly all of the above.
What would be the worst that would happen if the Taleban were allowed to have the country back?
This might seem like a bad thing for the inhabitants, but continual war hardly seems like a positive alternative.
Nov 2007:
Nov 2008:
*Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
It looks like Iran (on the Western border) would be a very valuable ally if one wanted to cut the Taliban vanguard in the north from their bases in the South and Southeast (including Pakistan's frontier province). The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
Compare ethnic group majorities:
For other regional hard power games, see Who is it that the UK and Spain intend to invade?. Seaborne assault capabilities need amphibious assault vessels, while escort duties and logistical support for evacuations can be provided by a less heavily armored type of light aircraft carrier, a "Sea Control" vessel.
If Great Britain was focused on the defensive needs of a maritime nation, its "big ships" would be attack submarines and light aircraft carriers. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Only in a region where the rivals have nuclear power capabilities.
I submit that is not the case. Israel is a nuclear power, yet I think you could easily argue that Iran, which is not a nuclear power, is a power player in the region for a variety of reasons, not the least of which being that their proximity to our bestest buddy, Saudi Arabia. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
A regional rival with nuclear weapons is necessary for nuclear weapons to be a requisite of status as a regional power, not sufficient. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
A great power is a nation or state that has the ability to exert its influence on a global scale. Great powers characteristically possess economic, military, diplomatic, and cultural strength, which may cause other, smaller nations to consider the opinions of great powers before taking actions of their own. International relations theorists have posited that great power status can be characterized into power capabilities, spatial aspects, and status dimensions. Sometimes the status of great powers is formally recognized in conferences such as the Congress of Vienna or an international structure such as the United Nations Security Council. The term "great power" was first used to represent the most important powers in Europe during the post-Napoleonic era.[1] Since then, the international balance of power has shifted numerous times, most dramatically during World War I and World War II. While some nations are widely considered to be great powers, there is no definitive list, leading to a continuing debate.
The term "great power" was first used to represent the most important powers in Europe during the post-Napoleonic era.[1] Since then, the international balance of power has shifted numerous times, most dramatically during World War I and World War II. While some nations are widely considered to be great powers, there is no definitive list, leading to a continuing debate.
2. Follows rather logically from one, that is: A great power is a nation or state that has the ability to exert its influence on a global scale.. If you can do that, you are a serious player. You can also be a regional great power which means you will be taken serious in your own home region. Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
