Health experts agree that, while the current flu epidemic that started in Mexico in April 2009 may weaken during the summer, it could re-appear in the autumn, possibly in a stronger form. Using historical benchmarks of previous flu pandemics and of the SARS episode, we estimate the economic impact of a global flu pandemic in the UK. The GDP loss during the six months of the pandemic would amount to around 5% in the UK. That a pandemic is likely to hit the global economy just as it starts to recover from recession could result in the economic impact being larger than would otherwise have been the case, and this could tip the world and UK economies into deflation. UK CPI inflation would fall to around -1% throughout 2010-12 and UK GDP growth next year could be as low as -7½%. 17 July 2009 learn more (pdf)
Hat tip Le Monde.fr "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
Some of the world's leading pharmaceutical companies are reaping billions of dollars in extra revenue amid rising global concern about the growing spread of swine flu.Analysts expect to see a significant boost in sales from GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and Sanofi-Aventis when they report first-half earnings lifted by government contracts for flu vaccines and antiviral medicines....One principal beneficiary of the growing fears about the pandemic has been Roche of Switzerland, which sells Tamiflu, the leading antiviral drug, and has seen a sharp rise in orders from private companies as well as governments. A research report last week from JPMorgan, the investment bank, estimated that governments had ordered nearly 600m doses of pandemic vaccine and adjuvant - a chemical that boosts its efficacy - worth $4.3bn in sales, and there was potential for a further 342m doses worth $2.6bn ahead.It forecast that fresh antiviral sales could boost sales for GSK and Roche by another $1.8bn in the developed world, and potentially up to $1.2bn from the developing world.
Analysts expect to see a significant boost in sales from GlaxoSmithKline, Roche and Sanofi-Aventis when they report first-half earnings lifted by government contracts for flu vaccines and antiviral medicines.
...
One principal beneficiary of the growing fears about the pandemic has been Roche of Switzerland, which sells Tamiflu, the leading antiviral drug, and has seen a sharp rise in orders from private companies as well as governments.
A research report last week from JPMorgan, the investment bank, estimated that governments had ordered nearly 600m doses of pandemic vaccine and adjuvant - a chemical that boosts its efficacy - worth $4.3bn in sales, and there was potential for a further 342m doses worth $2.6bn ahead.
It forecast that fresh antiviral sales could boost sales for GSK and Roche by another $1.8bn in the developed world, and potentially up to $1.2bn from the developing world.
