Nominated too early? « Behind the Scenes
I cannot imagine that Tony Blair will get the job of EU president (a post created by the not-yet-ratified Lisbon Treaty). He carries too much baggage. The Iraq war brought hundreds of thousands of Europeans to the streets in protest. It caused huge divisions among EU governments themselves, cleverly played upon by Washington at the time. To what good would it serve raking up this recent ugly past and then giving the (European) protagonist a major role in Europe? And it will be a major role once a politician of Blair's calibre gets a hold of it. The Lisbon treaty says the president should oversee the work of the regular EU leader meetings, but also externally represent the Union while not stepping on the toes of the EU foreign minister. So there is plenty of room for manoeuvre. If EU leaders give Blair the job it would be tantamount to saying they want an over-arching president who would represent member states to the world. This is not what small member states want and, for all his talk of "set[ting] the bar high and not aim[ing] for the lowest common denominator" I cannot see that this is what French president Nicolas Sarkozy, lover of the limelight, wants either. Or London. In addition, the Brussels apparatus is already acutely disconnected from EU citizens. Putting Blair, a supporter of a thoroughly unpopular war in the post, would only serve to underline this. Perhaps EU leaders - most have changed since 2003 - will not pay too much attention to the Iraq war when and if it comes to the haggling of Lisbon Treaty posts. The negotiations do not tend to be based on high principles. But wheter or not Iraq would feature, I reckon London has done for his chances anyway. Giving Blair public backing so early in the game means his name is likely to get trampled down by opponents well before EU leaders get to formally discussing candidates for the post. A cunning ploy by Gordon Brown?
I cannot imagine that Tony Blair will get the job of EU president (a post created by the not-yet-ratified Lisbon Treaty).
He carries too much baggage. The Iraq war brought hundreds of thousands of Europeans to the streets in protest. It caused huge divisions among EU governments themselves, cleverly played upon by Washington at the time. To what good would it serve raking up this recent ugly past and then giving the (European) protagonist a major role in Europe?
And it will be a major role once a politician of Blair's calibre gets a hold of it.
The Lisbon treaty says the president should oversee the work of the regular EU leader meetings, but also externally represent the Union while not stepping on the toes of the EU foreign minister. So there is plenty of room for manoeuvre.
If EU leaders give Blair the job it would be tantamount to saying they want an over-arching president who would represent member states to the world. This is not what small member states want and, for all his talk of "set[ting] the bar high and not aim[ing] for the lowest common denominator" I cannot see that this is what French president Nicolas Sarkozy, lover of the limelight, wants either. Or London.
In addition, the Brussels apparatus is already acutely disconnected from EU citizens. Putting Blair, a supporter of a thoroughly unpopular war in the post, would only serve to underline this.
Perhaps EU leaders - most have changed since 2003 - will not pay too much attention to the Iraq war when and if it comes to the haggling of Lisbon Treaty posts. The negotiations do not tend to be based on high principles.
But wheter or not Iraq would feature, I reckon London has done for his chances anyway. Giving Blair public backing so early in the game means his name is likely to get trampled down by opponents well before EU leaders get to formally discussing candidates for the post. A cunning ploy by Gordon Brown?
Hmm, a couple million in each of London, Madrid and Rome if I remember correctly.
But what is an order of magnitude updown or down among friends? The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
