Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on recordA new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists. So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record. The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.
A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists.
So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.
The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.
Right from the second sentence:
A new El Niño has begun.
No. El Niño conditions have established. When these are maintained for 5 consecutive months, we speak of El Niño. Not now.
A metric to follow: the Southern Oscillation index. New update expected tomorrow. If the SOI trends more towards positive values, the case is strengthening for an extended period of El Niño conditions, that is, an El Niño year.
Speaking of strength:
Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record
Of course it ain't clear which forecasters they mean. One might actually check, and we wouldn't want that, would we? For instance, say, NOAA:
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.
The record one in 1998: +2.5. The one in 2007: +1.1. Bit of available margin for this year.
But what would the mean be of these model predictions? Mmmm...
Science ain't hard. Some people might be able to get to their own interpretations.
And while I'm at it:
The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year
According to GISS, the hottest year of the 20th century is still a year in the 1930s. Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative.
Suckers.
</rant>
If the SOI trends more towards positive values, the case is strengthening for an extended period of El Niño conditions, that is, an El Niño year.
Scratch that. Negative values indicate strengthening of El Niño conditions. Not positive.
Sigh...
