Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on recordA new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists. So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record. The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.
A new El Niño has begun. The sporadic Pacific Ocean warming, which can disrupt weather patterns across the world, is intensifying, say meteorologists.
So, over the next few months, there may be increased drought in Africa, India and Australia, heavier rainfall in South America and increased extremes in Britain, of warm and cold. It may make 2010 one of the hottest years on record.
The cyclical phenomenon, which happens every two to seven years, is a major determinant of global weather systems. The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year, and caused major droughts and catastrophic forest fires in South-east Asia which sent a pall of smoke right across the region.
Right from the second sentence:
A new El Niño has begun.
No. El Niño conditions have established. When these are maintained for 5 consecutive months, we speak of El Niño. Not now.
A metric to follow: the Southern Oscillation index. New update expected tomorrow. If the SOI trends more towards positive values, the case is strengthening for an extended period of El Niño conditions, that is, an El Niño year.
Speaking of strength:
Forecasters say this one is brewing up to be the second-strongest on record
Of course it ain't clear which forecasters they mean. One might actually check, and we wouldn't want that, would we? For instance, say, NOAA:
Model forecasts of SST anomalies for the Niño-3.4 region (Fig. 5) reflect a growing consensus for the continued development of El Niño (+0.5°C or greater in the Niño-3.4 region). However, the spread of the models indicates disagreement over the eventual strength of El Niño (+0.5°C to +2.0°C). Current conditions and recent trends favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with further strengthening possible thereafter.
The record one in 1998: +2.5. The one in 2007: +1.1. Bit of available margin for this year.
But what would the mean be of these model predictions? Mmmm...
Science ain't hard. Some people might be able to get to their own interpretations.
And while I'm at it:
The 1997-98 El Niño combined with global warming to push 1998 into being the world's hottest year
According to GISS, the hottest year of the 20th century is still a year in the 1930s. Sorry if that doesn't fit your narrative.
Suckers.
</rant>
If the SOI trends more towards positive values, the case is strengthening for an extended period of El Niño conditions, that is, an El Niño year.
Scratch that. Negative values indicate strengthening of El Niño conditions. Not positive.
Sigh...
Climate change, border disputes and the opposition of residents to expansion threaten eastern Poland's unique woodlands.Acontest between competing needs of conservation and economic growth is threatening the future of large parts of Europe's last ancient forest. The 380,000-acre Bialowieza Primeval Forest, which straddles the border between Poland and Belarus, is one of the largest unpopulated woodlands remaining in Europe. It has been a Unesco World Heritage Site since 1979, is home to the continent's largest herd of bison, and resembles - in appearance and the self-contained food chain it supports - the fabled wildwood that covered much of Europe's plain, and, indeed, England before man intervened. On the Polish side of the border, residents are opposing plans to extend the protected zone of this unique habitat, which is under threat from rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Encouraged by international conservation agencies, Warsaw wants to enlarge the area's national park, which occupies less than a fifth of the Polish part of the forest. It has offered up to 100 million zlotys (£20m) to be shared among the nine communities that would be affected by broader regulations protecting wildlife.
Acontest between competing needs of conservation and economic growth is threatening the future of large parts of Europe's last ancient forest. The 380,000-acre Bialowieza Primeval Forest, which straddles the border between Poland and Belarus, is one of the largest unpopulated woodlands remaining in Europe. It has been a Unesco World Heritage Site since 1979, is home to the continent's largest herd of bison, and resembles - in appearance and the self-contained food chain it supports - the fabled wildwood that covered much of Europe's plain, and, indeed, England before man intervened.
On the Polish side of the border, residents are opposing plans to extend the protected zone of this unique habitat, which is under threat from rising temperatures and declining rainfall. Encouraged by international conservation agencies, Warsaw wants to enlarge the area's national park, which occupies less than a fifth of the Polish part of the forest. It has offered up to 100 million zlotys (£20m) to be shared among the nine communities that would be affected by broader regulations protecting wildlife.
A group of farmers have created these extraordinary 'murals' by planting rice in different colours in Japanese paddy fields. The creations emerge in the late summer months after the rice plants have had a chance to grow.But the farmers first sketch out their designs on computers so that they know exactly where the rice needs to be planted.
The creations emerge in the late summer months after the rice plants have had a chance to grow.
But the farmers first sketch out their designs on computers so that they know exactly where the rice needs to be planted.
Cooler conditions and light rain have helped firefighters in their efforts to control wildfires that have been raging across the holiday island of La Palma in Spain's Canary Islands, where thousands have been evacuated. AFP - Firefighters on the Spanish island of La Palma were on Monday beginning to master a fire that has forced thousands of people to flee their homes, local authorities said. Fanned by strong winds, the fire on the small island in the Canaries archipelago has ravaged some 2,000 hectares of pine forest and destroyed dozens of homes since it erupted on Friday night. But cooler temperatures, gentler winds and light rain on Monday helped firefighters to bring one of the two active fronts under control, the authorities said.
AFP - Firefighters on the Spanish island of La Palma were on Monday beginning to master a fire that has forced thousands of people to flee their homes, local authorities said. Fanned by strong winds, the fire on the small island in the Canaries archipelago has ravaged some 2,000 hectares of pine forest and destroyed dozens of homes since it erupted on Friday night. But cooler temperatures, gentler winds and light rain on Monday helped firefighters to bring one of the two active fronts under control, the authorities said.
After focusing on oil, metals and minerals for decades, Japan's huge trading houses are turning to agricultural commodities, with Tokyo enthusiastically supporting the shift amid concerns about local and global food security. The move by the sogo shosha, or general trading companies, comes as the Japanese government prepares to launch plans this month to finance investment in food production overseas. Japan is the world's largest net importer of food, buying in more than $40bn (€28bn, £24bn).Japanese officials say the 2007-08 food crisis stemmed from decades of under-investment in agriculture, a view shared by the Group of Eight rich countries. Tokyo believes that expanding food production, through public-private partnership with its local trading houses and other companies, will help mitigate future risks.
The move by the sogo shosha, or general trading companies, comes as the Japanese government prepares to launch plans this month to finance investment in food production overseas. Japan is the world's largest net importer of food, buying in more than $40bn (€28bn, £24bn).
Japanese officials say the 2007-08 food crisis stemmed from decades of under-investment in agriculture, a view shared by the Group of Eight rich countries. Tokyo believes that expanding food production, through public-private partnership with its local trading houses and other companies, will help mitigate future risks.
India and China are to co-operate in monitoring the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas, a border region crucial to both countries' water supplies and one over which they have gone to war.Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, said that, as part of a scientific investigation into the health of what are called the Water Towers of Asia, academic research bodies on both sides of the mountain range would share information. He also told the FT that New Delhi was open to a dialogue about water resources with Beijing, saying the two countries shared concerns.
Jairam Ramesh, India's environment minister, said that, as part of a scientific investigation into the health of what are called the Water Towers of Asia, academic research bodies on both sides of the mountain range would share information. He also told the FT that New Delhi was open to a dialogue about water resources with Beijing, saying the two countries shared concerns.
