Normally the seasonal flu kills the elderly, those with preexisting respiratory conditions, etc. And so, those are the people who get vaccinated in preference.
In this case, if it is true that serious flu cases seem to belong to the 20-45 age bracket you don't have to vaccinate the elderly as you do in seasonal flu: you'd have to vaccinate the 20-45 age group.
Similarly, if it turns out that the mortality rate (given infection) is higher in obese people, you would consider vaccinating the obese in preference to other groups.
And so on.
So, yes, you would have to consider a gamut of risk factors both influencing susceptibility to infection and the severity of the disease. The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
The bug is reported [country distribution page links to WHO map] to have killed 429 people worldwide since its discovery in the U.S. and Mexico in April. The infection, which has now spread as far as New Zealand and Norway, causes little more than a fever and cough in most cases. The majority of those who died were pregnant, had asthma, diabetes or other chronic diseases, according to the WHO.
... and you get in effect (almighty cost-basis) a formula for indiscriminate vaccination in countries where >50% of the total population exhibit one or more of these "risk factors" in addition to age, BMI. The US ($1.85B) and UK, f'r instance where (purportedly it is NOT true "serious flu cases seem to belong to the 20-45 age bracket") chronic flatulence may constitute unacceptable infection risk at some indeterminate point in time.
5-day Vaccine Trial | Times | 12 July 2009
Regulators at the European Medicines Agency (EMEA) said the fast-tracked procedure has involved clinical trials of a "mock-up" vaccine similar [!!] to the one that will be used for the biggest mass vaccination programme in generations. It will be introduced into the general population while regulators continue to carry out simultaneous clinical trials. ... The UK government has ordered enough vaccine to cover the entire population. GPs are being told to prepare for a nationwide vaccination campaign.... He said although swine flu was not causing serious illness in patients, health officials were eager to start a mass vaccination campaign, starting first on priority groups.... The Department of Health said it had still not finalised which groups would be vaccinated first, but children, frontline health workers, people with underlying illnesses and the elderly are likely to take priority.
The UK government has ordered enough vaccine to cover the entire population. GPs are being told to prepare for a nationwide vaccination campaign....
He said although swine flu was not causing serious illness in patients, health officials were eager to start a mass vaccination campaign, starting first on priority groups....
The Department of Health said it had still not finalised which groups would be vaccinated first, but children, frontline health workers, people with underlying illnesses and the elderly are likely to take priority.
Lemme tell you something: We are not discussing reasonable public health policy. We are not evaluating evidence of 'pandemic' morbidity or even therapeutic relief. We're watching a movie in which my child is a captive, unnamed extra. Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.
