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Stop thinking like a speculator. That way lies madness.

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:12:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes yes, and still, when have CDS's had any predicitive ability anyway...

It's just that credit (gah stop inventing new names like "fixed income" all the time!) markets have started fascinating me (especially corporate bonds are interesting in a time of infinitesmal government coupons).

I blame you and Jerome.

And yes, the current crisis is partly due to people who don't really knew what they were doing started looking for higher yielding bonds, there's no need mentioning it. ;)

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:19:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
when have CDS's had any predicitive ability anyway

That's not what markets are about. CDS price default risk, they don't predict it.

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:47:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do know that, we've discussed stuff like this earlier. My point being that even if derivatives actually do not predict stuff, that's how they're described in the media by the conventional wisdom, eh, wisdom-ers.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:49:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember this thread?

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 06:04:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Never seen it before.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 06:13:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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