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when have CDS's had any predicitive ability anyway

That's not what markets are about. CDS price default risk, they don't predict it.

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:47:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do know that, we've discussed stuff like this earlier. My point being that even if derivatives actually do not predict stuff, that's how they're described in the media by the conventional wisdom, eh, wisdom-ers.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 05:49:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember this thread?

The peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier. Carnot would have died laughing.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 06:04:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Never seen it before.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Sun Jul 12th, 2009 at 06:13:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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