This graph...compares the BLS reported monthly unemployment rate (in red) with the Obama economic forecast from January 10th: The Job Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Plan
Geithner is correct about the stimulus kicking in during the 2nd half of 2009, and Delong agrees. But Delong is pointing out that the economy is in much worse shape than originally expected, and he argues if the Obama Administration knew in January what we know today, the package would have been much larger. Maybe. But thinking back - there was a huge political problem with the word "trillion" - so a much larger package would have been very difficult (although the composition could have been different). As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
A case in point from last week:
El fondo bancario podrá disponer de 90.000 millones · ELPAÍS.com[Spain's] banking fund may have €90bn at its disposal. - ElPaís.comEl Fondo de Reestructuración Ordenada Bancaria (FROB), convalidado ayer en el Congreso, contará con una aportación inicial de 9.000 millones de euros, ampliable a 90.000. Es el segundo plan de rescate para la banca aprobado en los últimos meses.The Ordered Banking Restructuring Fund (FROB), validated yesterday in the Congress, will have an initial contribution of €9bn, extendable to €90bn. It is the second rescue plan for the banking sector approved in the last few months. Now compare this to yesterday'sSpain is aiming to change its economic model away from construction and towards the "sustainable economy". Salgado pide a los bancos y cajas 10.000 millones para el fondo de economía sostenible · ELPAÍS.comSalgado asks banks and S&Ls for €10bn for the sustainable economy fund - ElPaís.comLa vicepresidenta segunda del Gobierno y ministra de Economía, Elena Salgado, ha clausurado el IX Encuentro Financiero Internacional organizado por Caja Madrid y EL PAÍS, acto en el que ha pedido hoy a los bancos y cajas que aporten el 50% del futuro fondo para la economía sostenible que se pondrá en marcha en 2010 y que ascenderá a 20.000 millones de euros. Cuando llegue la recuperación, ha afirmado Salgado, el sector financiero español deberá "redirigir la asignación de recursos hacia sectores sostenibles, es imprescindible su participación en el fondo".[Spain's] Second Deputy Prime Minister and minister for the Economy, Elena Salgado, has closed the 9th International Financial Meeting organised by [S&L] Caja Madrid and El País, an event in which she asked banks and S&Ls to contribute 50% of the future Sustainable Economy Fund which will kick off in 2010 and will reach €20bn. When the recovery arrives, Salgado claimed, the Spanish financial sector will have to "redirect the resource allocation towards sustainable sectors, its participation it the fund is a requirement".Now I'm pissed off...
Now compare this to yesterday's
Spain is aiming to change its economic model away from construction and towards the "sustainable economy". Salgado pide a los bancos y cajas 10.000 millones para el fondo de economía sostenible · ELPAÍS.comSalgado asks banks and S&Ls for €10bn for the sustainable economy fund - ElPaís.comLa vicepresidenta segunda del Gobierno y ministra de Economía, Elena Salgado, ha clausurado el IX Encuentro Financiero Internacional organizado por Caja Madrid y EL PAÍS, acto en el que ha pedido hoy a los bancos y cajas que aporten el 50% del futuro fondo para la economía sostenible que se pondrá en marcha en 2010 y que ascenderá a 20.000 millones de euros. Cuando llegue la recuperación, ha afirmado Salgado, el sector financiero español deberá "redirigir la asignación de recursos hacia sectores sostenibles, es imprescindible su participación en el fondo".[Spain's] Second Deputy Prime Minister and minister for the Economy, Elena Salgado, has closed the 9th International Financial Meeting organised by [S&L] Caja Madrid and El País, an event in which she asked banks and S&Ls to contribute 50% of the future Sustainable Economy Fund which will kick off in 2010 and will reach €20bn. When the recovery arrives, Salgado claimed, the Spanish financial sector will have to "redirect the resource allocation towards sustainable sectors, its participation it the fund is a requirement".
