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So forget Lovelock and Gaia.

Do we know enough to get geoengineering right?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 04:47:47 AM EST
See


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by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 04:53:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

Based on what I have seen of the different climate models, introduction of new factors in the models will have rather different outcomes. We are dealing with equilibriums and feedback-loops and barely begun to grasp the systems boundaries. We can try to re-create known conditions (by say removing carbon dioxide from the air), but if we in the process increase other factors we do not know the effect, other then that there is in all probability limits where the new factors will cause unwanted effects.

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by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 05:03:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

But the point is that we're already doing it, accidentally.

And the rest of the point is to stop.

But Lovelock is hitching his wagon to a libertarian zeitgeistish point of view which suggests that things left alone without (government) intervention naturally return to happy equilibrium.

Which is bollocks, and should be called out as such.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 05:06:33 AM EST
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No, but we don't know enough to get climate change right either: I'm comfortable with the idea that pumping loads of crap likely to increase the energy of the system into the atmosphere is probably a really, really bad idea but I could be wrong. Maybe it's all that's kept us out of a sudden ice age. I'm certainly not comfortable with the idea that any of our climate predictions are likely to be long-term accurate.

I'd like to see geoengineering limited to stuff we can reverse - like big reflectors in space to reduce the energy of the sun reaching the surface, so that we can undo what we did, but we won't be able to predict the outcome at all without putting a lot of money and effort into climate and systems science.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 06:06:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree with what you say about climate change, but the possible or probable inaccuracy of climate models is part of the argument against geoengineering, it seems to me.

Reversible geoengineering is an idea, but it does depend on your conclusion: a lot of money and effort into climate and systems science. And hope.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 07:39:29 AM EST
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Seeding oceans or releasing aerosols scare the hell out of me.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Sep 22nd, 2009 at 07:43:29 AM EST
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