To what extent will differential turnout be a factor? Is the left or the right more motivated to turn out? It seems centre lefty voters have more choices than those on the right. Will the far right also bleed votes from the CDU/CSU, votes which, ultimately won't lead to parliamentary representation and thus lesson any overhang effect?
What seems remarkable about these elections is the relative stability and lack of personal animosity at a time of crisis. Germany has come of age? notes from no w here
Is it fear of a CDU/FDP Government that is driving the SPD rally and the CDU decline?
To what extent will differential turnout be a factor? Is the left or the right more motivated to turn out?
What seems remarkable about these elections is the relative stability and lack of personal animosity at a time of crisis. Germany has come of age?
I think that it's largely an artifice of the previously high number of undecided voters, but also caused to some extent Steinmeier's superior performance in the head to head television debate.
I'm assuming some of it has to do with the tradition of undecideds breaking a little more against the incumbent, too. Conservatives want live babies so they can raise them to be dead soldiers. - George Carlin
My idea on this is that it's the base. The CDU base is fairly loyal and if they break, they should first break to the FDP. Although the SPD has been running a fairly centrist campaign. The main base for the FDP and Greens, meanwhile, is rich and/or educated. These people make up their minds sooner.
The main base for the SPD has been less motivated to actually vote, which depressed their numbers in the European Parliament elections, but they should turn up for the federal elections. Additionally, the electoral system with a first vote for a direct candidate and a second vote for a party list should drive more votes towards the SPD, as they bring the only credible candidates to oppose the CDU in a lot of districts.
The CDU base is fairly loyal and if they break, they should first break to the FDP.
Is there not still a strong Catholic/Protestant split between (especially older) CDU/FDP voters which reduces cross-overs despite ideological similarities especially on economic policy? notes from no w here
I think this was overblown in the media: there was equal or more movement within the camps rather than across them. You should also consider tactical voting: a vote for the FDP could also be a conservative's a vote for a CDU-FDP coalition, and a vote for the SPD could also be a desperate commie's vote against the FDP in government. (How the former could backfire, was highlighted by nanne in the diary; I note this also led to a mini-war between the CDU and the FDP on first vote recommendations.)
My sense is that many/most Germans don't like fixing things that are not broken and would have been quite happy for the Grand Coalition to continue.
In coalition preference polls, the CDU/CSU+FDP came out on top (though still well below 50%), and the Grand Coalition only second. I suspect SPD voters are the only group favouring a continuation by a majority. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Lack of personal animosity? Well, maybe not between the heads of the main parties (who are suspected to secretly hope for continuing the Grand Coalition, whatever their public declarations to the opposite). But there was reportedly [sadly I missed it] lively discussion in the TV debate between the leaders of the three smaller parties; and environment minister Sigmar Gabriel (SPD) fought his lone war, too.
And then there is the far-right NPD who mailed letters to politicians with foreign descent telling them to emigrate. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
