But who is the electorate? It seems that Merkel/Sarkozy/Brown are the key players who hold a veto on any prospective candidate - whilst not having quite enough power to impose a candidate no one else wants. So who does Berlusconi, Zapatero, Tusk want? It seems that Blair has the inside track with a lot of these guys as a former equal and colleague.
But do they want someone with an ego even bigger than theirs and a determination to steal much of the limelight away from them? From their point of view, the biggest problem with Blair is that he might be seen to diminish them.
But from our point of view, the biggest problem is the lack of a credible alternative who might command the consensus support of the Council. The popular opposition to Blair is based on his support for the Iraq war and the perception that he is a used car salesman without principles who simply can't be trusted - by any side. Can the Council trust Blair to pursue their agenda, and not his own?
So who could we promote as a viable alternative - someone sufficiently prominent to be regarded as a peer by the key Council members, but not too uncontrollable or prominent to steal their limelight?
Bertie Ahern was very highly regarded at the time he brokered the agreements to the Constitutional Treaty and the appointment of Barroso - but rather badly dirtied his copybook with financial scandals since. (He was actually offered the Commission President post, but didn't want it). We was a fixer and a deal maker who could be relied on not to have too much of an agenda of his own. Hardly an inspirational choice for the rest of Europe.
But who is? Daniel-Cohn Bendit/Joska Fischer - not a chance of getting support outside the minority left/green movement? Jan Peter Balkenende? Probably very attractive to the EPP majority. With Barroso safely re-appointed, what is to prevent them having a second bite at the cherry after the Treaty is ratified? At least Balkenende wouldn't have quite the baggage Blair has, and who cares what the Brits now think anyway?
The reality is that there are very few good choices likely to be ideologically and personally acceptable to a large majority on the Council. This won't be our choice to make, but the Council's. Are there any candidates likely to be acceptable to the Council that we could support? notes from no w here
But who is the electorate? It seems that Merkel/Sarkozy/Brown are the key players who hold a veto on any prospective candidate - whilst not having quite enough power to impose a candidate no one else wants. So who does Berlusconi, Zapatero, Tusk want? It seems that Blair has the inside track with a lot of these guys as a former equal and colleague. But do they want someone with an ego even bigger than theirs and a determination to steal much of the limelight away from them? From their point of view, the biggest problem with Blair is that he might be seen to diminish them.
Also, Medium- and Small-size countries are less than pleased with the recent tendency of the big three (UK, France and Germany) to run the EU from mini-summits with Barroso, presenting the results as fait accompli to be rubberstamped by the Council at large. Belgium will hold the EU rotating presidency in the second hald of 2010, and has already voiced concerns about this issue. Hungary is also concerned.
But opponents of a Blair presidency might be blindsided if they allow Blair to line up his ducks without doing anything to present an alternative candidate. En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
Spanish EU presidency in the first quarter of 2010
There would be a number of changes to the European Council under the proposed Treaty of Lisbon.[17] The treaty would make the European Council a formal institution, separate from the Council of the European Union (now the Council of Ministers). While the Council of Ministers would continue with the rotating presidency, the European Council would have a single, fixed, President of the European Council with a renewable two-and-a-half year mandate. The position would stay a non-executive, administrative role. It would have an important role in organising work and meetings, providing external representation (including working with the CFSP) and being able to call extraordinary meetings beyond the four that are now formally required to take place.[18] The role of the council is clearly separate from the Council, and primarily follows previous definitions. In separating from the Council of Ministers, the European Council gains no legislative power. It does however gain a greater say over police and justice planning, foreign policy and constitutional matters, including: the composition of the Parliament and Commission; matters relating to the rotating presidency; the suspension of membership rights; changing the voting systems in the treaties bridging clauses; and nominating the President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The High Representative, along with the new post of President, are the only formal changes in composition. Further more, under the "emergency break" procedure, a state may refer contenious legislation from the Council of Ministers to the European Council if it is outvoted in the Council, although it may still be outvoted in the European Council.[18][19][20] Although there may be some informal changes; currently the President of Finland informally takes part in the European Council as s/he is responsible for the Finland's foreign policy outside the EU. This is alongside the Prime Minister who deals with policy within the EU. Under the new treaty the Council becomes a formal EU institution and deals with foreign policy (making it EU policy). Hence, some see the President's attendance would no longer be justified.[21] There has been speculation on who would be the first (full time) President of the European Council, being dubbed as the President of the European Union. Currently the most common name is former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair.[22][23] This was backed up further when, in June 2007, French president Nicolas Sarkozy was the first leader to propose that Blair be the first president.[24]. On July 15th 2009, BBC News reported that the UK Minister for Europe Baroness Kinnock had confirmed that Blair would be a candidate for the role and would have British government support. However in August 2007, there has been specuation that Bertie Ahern, the former Irish Taoiseach, could also be a contender[25]. The Bulgarian government has floated the name of former Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha[26]. In September 2009, the name of Dutch Prime Minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, was reported in the Dutch press[27] as a possible contender for the new post. Balkende has firmly denied that he was a contender, dismissing the claim as "claptrap"
There would be a number of changes to the European Council under the proposed Treaty of Lisbon.[17]
The treaty would make the European Council a formal institution, separate from the Council of the European Union (now the Council of Ministers). While the Council of Ministers would continue with the rotating presidency, the European Council would have a single, fixed, President of the European Council with a renewable two-and-a-half year mandate. The position would stay a non-executive, administrative role. It would have an important role in organising work and meetings, providing external representation (including working with the CFSP) and being able to call extraordinary meetings beyond the four that are now formally required to take place.[18]
The role of the council is clearly separate from the Council, and primarily follows previous definitions. In separating from the Council of Ministers, the European Council gains no legislative power. It does however gain a greater say over police and justice planning, foreign policy and constitutional matters, including: the composition of the Parliament and Commission; matters relating to the rotating presidency; the suspension of membership rights; changing the voting systems in the treaties bridging clauses; and nominating the President of the European Commission and the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy. The High Representative, along with the new post of President, are the only formal changes in composition. Further more, under the "emergency break" procedure, a state may refer contenious legislation from the Council of Ministers to the European Council if it is outvoted in the Council, although it may still be outvoted in the European Council.[18][19][20]
Although there may be some informal changes; currently the President of Finland informally takes part in the European Council as s/he is responsible for the Finland's foreign policy outside the EU. This is alongside the Prime Minister who deals with policy within the EU. Under the new treaty the Council becomes a formal EU institution and deals with foreign policy (making it EU policy). Hence, some see the President's attendance would no longer be justified.[21]
There has been speculation on who would be the first (full time) President of the European Council, being dubbed as the President of the European Union. Currently the most common name is former British Prime Minister, Tony Blair.[22][23] This was backed up further when, in June 2007, French president Nicolas Sarkozy was the first leader to propose that Blair be the first president.[24]. On July 15th 2009, BBC News reported that the UK Minister for Europe Baroness Kinnock had confirmed that Blair would be a candidate for the role and would have British government support. However in August 2007, there has been specuation that Bertie Ahern, the former Irish Taoiseach, could also be a contender[25]. The Bulgarian government has floated the name of former Prime Minister Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha[26]. In September 2009, the name of Dutch Prime Minister, Jan Peter Balkenende, was reported in the Dutch press[27] as a possible contender for the new post. Balkende has firmly denied that he was a contender, dismissing the claim as "claptrap"
By the way, wasn't this "Council President" Blair's idea to begin with? En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
What made the small success of the StopBlair petition is the fact that it federates people from all venues and opinions who strongly oppose his nomination. Furthermore, it send a very clear message that got (and might still get) the attention of the media because we were the only ones to do so. If we were to launch a campaign for a particular candidate, our message would most probably be lost in the political noise. By the way, we would first have to agree on a candidate, which is not as likely as it might seem... ;-) "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
<ducks>... "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
Do you really think that, if ET were to promote a candidate, we would be noticed, let alone listened to? "Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
When's the next Spanish general election? Is ZP gonna be free before Lisbon is ratified?
ZP will hold the rotating presidency of the Council of Ministers in the first half if 2010. See how you like him after that :P En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
I think Melanchthon's right that our campaigning for a candidate would have little or no effect. Helping spread the message that Blair sparks off immediate and strong opposition is something we can do with effect.
As long as we can drum up noise against him, we can accomplish our task. In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
The reality is that there are very few good choices likely to be ideologically and personally acceptable to a large majority on the Council. This won't be our choice to make, but the Council's. Are there any candidates likely to be acceptable to the Council that we could support?
But, seriously, small states wouldn't like it. I still think that one of the BeNeLux candidates will be the winner. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
