I suspect that similarly, anti-Blair feeling is much less pronounced amongst the electorate - the heads of Government - than elsewhere in the political system. His election would give the appearance of balance - a nominal socialist to balance the CD Commission and Parliament Presidents without creating any ideological friction with the Christian and Liberal democrats. The emergence of the FDP in Germany might also support his liberal economic and atlanticist leanings. Now that Blair is a Catholic he might even get the Med vote...
Allied to that, his election might help to head of secessionist tendencies in the UK and receive the backing of atlanticist eastern European heads of Government. So the only remaining problem with his candidacy might be the fear that he would try to be too much of the big bird - in which case Balkenende and Juncker might come into the picture.
The reality is that those who oppose him most - the European left - have been roundly defeated in most recent elections and Iraq is history as far as the Heads of Government are concerned. But are the other former Heads of Government completely out of the picture? Chirac (too old?), Schroeder (not interested?), Prodi (too old and opposed by Berlusconi?), Aznar (Opposed by Zapatero?), Ahern (damaged goods?). It's not too late for a dark horse to appear and I suspect the back rooms have been buzzing as deals are being done.
I suspect the media and academic speculation is only so much hot air. Those who will really make the decision don't need any affirmation from the media or academics. They will be talking to prospect candidates to ensure that their concerns will be addressed. Some may deliberately "promote" some candidate as a cover for their real intentions and get a good deal for appearing to compromise later.
But you guys aren't discussing the real problem: Where is the European White House? You can't have poor Tony living in some Hotel room or gloomy Belgian Castle. Lets have a competition to identify a suitable Palace for the future King of Europe..... notes from no w here
But you guys aren't discussing the real problem: Where is the European White House? You can't have poor Tony living in some Hotel room or gloomy Belgian Castle. Lets have a competition to identify a suitable Palace for the future King of Europe.....
There are perfectly fine cells in Hague, if Tony is looking for accommodation suitable for his august personage.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
The Vatican? I'm sure if Blair asked nicely, his friend Berlusconi would be happy to evict the current occupant.
Those who will really make the decision don't need any affirmation from the media or academics.
True, but
Frank Schnittger:
They will be talking to prospect candidates to ensure that their concerns will be addressed.
Only partly. This is not just any job they're hiring for. This will involve a real surrender of power within the European Council. Up to now, the European Council's work was run by the head of government of the current presidency country, who was de jure a member on equal footing of the council - and respected as one who currently exercised real responsibility for her/is country. Now the European Council has to bring in someone from outside, who will not be a head of government in exercise, for a job with (potentially) considerable power. The interests of small member states, which are losing part of the attributes of the rotating presidency that they are attached to, are not necessarily, in any case, aligned with this transfer of power within the council, and much less so if the candidate comes from a big member state. So I think you're oversimplifying the game.
Anyway, though I appreciate the Irish may have reason for more pro-Blair feelings than others, I think anyone who imagines just striking a deal with Tony in which "their concerns will be addressed" has their head... in the clouds.
Mr Dick Roche (Gvt, Irl) said that a permanent Presidency of the European Council might even lead to an institutional coup d'état.
That's from the summary of the plenary debate on the Franco-German proposal, at the European Convention on 20 Jan 2003 (quoted in the UK Commons report).
"Dieu se rit des hommes qui se plaignent des conséquences alors qu'ils en chérissent les causes" Jacques-Bénigne Bossuet
