There will certainly be more choice, and a lot more piracy. But I'm not sure how the current music model is working. What's the distribution of those album sales. What media are selling? Who's buying them, in what contexts? Does this count small-run sales from the likes of CD Baby which - irrespective of quality - are often just vanity efforts from the point of view of actual income?
As for books - people don't understand that book publishing isn't about wood pulp, it's about social networks and caste relationships. Being an author is (supposedly) high status, so there's no lack of people who want to sample the benefits for themselves.
But the status comes from significant cultural sanctification in the MSM - getting mentioned, getting reviewed, getting interviewed, getting talked about. The physical process of being in print is almost the least significant part of that. The PR engine, the links between reviewers and cultural trend-setters and PR people, and the party/launch scene are vastly more influential.
Just being able to sell an e-book won't confer that sanctification on anyone, in the same way that getting a few tracks onto iTunes doesn't mean you can give up the day job.
In fact electronic publishing has been around for more than a decade now, and you can still find ghost sites which once sold the idea of electronic publishing to enthusiastic wannabe authors, and delivered very little.
If I had no scruples, I'd be doing the same with Kindle etc publishing - setting up a site which promised electronic publishing opportunities in return for a reading fee or subscription, and included a store where 'customers can buy your book', a forum, and all the rest.
My guess is there will be a lot of that, and perhaps not so much actual writing.
As for the writing - I have mixed feelings. A lot of amateur writing is desperately bad - it's much worse than amateur music, for some reason. But corporatisation has also locked out a lot of talented people from publishing, who deserve a voice.
The smart move would be for the talented people to form marketing and PR collectives - like record labels, for digital print. I don't suppose that will happen much, but it should, because it's going to be the only way to cut through the noise that's about to hit the industry.
Finland has one of the highest (if not the highest) books sales per capita. You can't be me, I'm taken
But that doesn't translate to interest lower down the food chain. E.g. with fewer pubs, there are far fewer venues for pub music now, which can mean less opportunity for cardboard box CD sales.
I'd love to see a comprehensive state of the industry report seeing who's making money and how, but I'm not sure such a thing exists.
The trade mag Music Week in the UK barely acknowledges anything and anyone who isn't signed to a major label, and they don't seem to accept that there might be more to the industry.
The pay for American musicians well below the level of the stadium shows is normally a share of the cover charge, so the more effective they are in finding places to play where they have fans, the better their income. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
here in italy, places to play are dwindling on the local level, while stadiums fill still.
only thing missing from a globalisation pov is itinerant chinese musos!
summer festas do provide some outlet, but pay is minimal, symbolic, accompanied by free food and wine.
i know very talented bands who have to show up at 6 for sound check, eat at 8, and then go on at 11 or 12 to play for 2 hours, then drive home with 50 euros a head, in time to fall asleep at dawn.
ain't living long, like this! ~"When an inner situation is not made conscious, it appears outside as fate." Karl Jung~
