Display:
... that is at best a four year lead time to produce the number of plants a country is presently equipped to produce. Otherwise the lead time includes the lead time of building the production capacity.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 02:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One need only look at the French (and Swedish) examples to see that needn't be a problem.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 03:19:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The issue is not whether its "a problem", the issue is whether a four year build out of a planned expansion in share of nuclear capacity is a realistic number. Citing the French case, if the decision was around 1974, 1984 looks far more like the target share than 1978.

Not installing wind turbines which will begin to be delivering power later in year one of the build-out on the promise that in four years the first power will begin to be delivered and in ten years you'll be getting close to your target is just a substantially different case to evaluate than not building wind turbines on the promise that in four year you'll be getting about the amount of power you want from nuclear.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 03:37:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Four years is the minimum time to build one reactor. The French peak reactor construction year was 1982 (6 reactors) IIRC. Going from 0 % to 75 % nuclear took about 15 years IIRC. Hardly a long time.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 05:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Compare the first statement to the final statement:
Furthermore, lead times need not at all be long. In a national effort with a solid competence base the plants will be built in about 5 years.

Four years is the minimum time to build one reactor.

We've gone from a statement that in the most direct reading suggests that all reactors desired may be built by a country "with a solid competence base" in about five years, so long as its part of a national effort, to one that makes it clear that four is an absolute bare minimum time to build one reactor.

Whether fifteen years is a long or short time, it is appreciably longer than five years.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 07:42:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We've gone from a statement that in the most direct reading suggests that all reactors desired may be built by a country "with a solid competence base" in about five years
I never claimed that.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid (arvid.hallen at gmail.com) on Mon Jan 18th, 2010 at 03:42:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password
Occasional Series