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There's some documentary film shot around 1980, where in one scene i'm debating the VP Nukes for GE on some stage somewhere.  I said the debate reminded me of a guy who jumps out of the 80th story window.  As he reaches the 50th floor, he says, "So far, so good."

Still doesn't seem such far-fetched logic.

(There J, am i getting a little closer to stating how i FEEL about nuclear power?)

Can anyone imagine what the kWh cost of photovoltaic would be now, if we weren't so busy sophisticatisizing our weapons systems, and airport scanners?

Wish i had a copy of the film.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 04:07:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and here's where we should put them.


h/t Sven

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 04:16:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
would probably be more relevant if it only showed events above a certain threshold of strength. Europe looks all black but is now (most of it anyway) a hotspot of seismic activity.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:11:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It presumably does, but the threshold is unreasonably low. I can't find any information about what the map actually represents, but here's one color coded for strength (though scanned with a resolution that makes the scale unreadable). Most of Europe looks much better now.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:24:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
to be truly accurate, in terms of danger, would be to superimpose a map of seismic building codes.  A 5.2 in most of Germany (a sneeze in Frisco) would have some damage, and a 5.8 would begin to be significant.  But the real issue in this discussion is the time scale, thousands of years.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:33:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You also need to know something about enforcement of these codes. With L'Aquila in mind, I assumed that Messina would have very strong building codes, but that enforcement of them would be lax. But maybe not: it turns out that in the 1975 earthquake in Messina (strength 5.4)
The most significant of these earthquakes was the January 16, 1975 event, measuring M5.4 and causing heavy damage to just three buildings in Messina.
Maybe two 7.5 earthquakes really does focus peoples minds, even in Southern Italy.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 03:13:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can anyone imagine what the kWh cost of photovoltaic would be now, if we weren't so busy sophisticatisizing our weapons systems, and airport scanners?

It is going down slowly, though. The industry already foresees this:

Solarwirtschaft: Solarstrom bereits 2013 auf Niveau der Verbraucher-Stromtarife: BSW-Solar - Bundesverband SolarwirtschaftSolarwirtschaft: Solar electricity on the level of consumer electricity price already in 2013: BSW-Solar - Solar Business Federal Association
Berlin, 13. Januar 2010: Nach Angaben des Bundesverbandes Solarwirtschaft e.V. lässt sich Solarstrom bereits in vier Jahren auf deutschen Dächern zu Kosten erzeugen, die dem Niveau herkömmlicher Verbraucher-Stromtarife entsprechen. Möglich wird dies durch Erfolge bei der Kostensenkung, durch die Weiterentwicklung der Technologie und durch einen beschleunigten Photovoltaik-Marktausbau. Auch die hohe Investitionsbereitschaft der Bürger trägt maßgeblich zur erfolgreichen Entwicklung der Solarenergie bei.Berlin, 13 January 2010: According to the [German] Solar Business Federal Association, already in four years, solar electricity can be produced on German rooftops at a price corresponding to the level of conventional consumer electricity prices. This will be possible through successes in cost-cutting, further development of the technology, and an accelerated expansion of the market for photovoltaics. The high willingness of citizens to invest has a crucial role in the development of solar energy.

Well, let's see when we get there; I hope it's based on more than an extrapolation of current trends. Which are, for Germany, according to BSW (this is a module price index, including installation costs but excluding tax):

...and for Europe and North America, according to Solarbuzz:



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:57:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo, this is excellent, but i must point out that cost numbers are skewed as Chinese panels enter the market at much lower costs.  Actual performance (including long-term) has to be taken into account for true numbers.  From a colleague, it seems chinese exports to California's solar rush went from several % to around 30% in just several years, or so i'm told.  (don't know actual figures.)

But the trend is clear, following exactly as the industry predicted, and wind has shown is valid.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 06:34:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Chinese products may be a factor, but the industry usually explains the year-long steep fall, as well as the plateau before, with changes on the demand side: the rapid expansion and then abrupt collapse of the Spanish market, following changes in the feed-in law.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 06:58:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What's the lifetime of the Chinese cells?

We know Chinese cars and trains don't have the kind of lifetime that you'd expect from German hardware. Or even American hardware. So it seems reasonable to consider that when doing cost calculations.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 10:07:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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