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you wouldn't need 5 times more capacity, you'd need close to the maximum potential demand

What is a typical ratio of peak to mean capacity utilization? Somehow, 5x doesn't seem far-fetched, come to think of it. For residential power, think of how running an electric oven, kettle, vacuum cleaner or iron compares to average use. A 3kW spike would not be unusual and base consumption (close to the average) could well be below 600W (a laptop, a TV/stereo and a couple of lights?).

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 05:41:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but from memory, maximum capacity should be 5-20% higher than peak demand; peak demand is probably 50-80% higher than average demand, which is itself 50-80% higher than minimum demand

So: 30GW base, 50GW average, 80GW peak, 90-100GW capacity.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 06:10:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Check Spain's power demand curve in real time.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 09:33:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. Together with the real-time wind power production, over the past 24 hours in Spain wind provided about 1/4 of the power.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 09:43:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right now, wind meets 25% of the Spanish mainland demand: 10,100 MW generated by wind power while demand is 41,536 MW.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 09:44:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also last night: around 6GW generated for a demand of 26GW.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 09:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
wind production nicely followed actual demand this morning...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 10:15:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
10.1GW was the eastimate. The real production was just about 9GW. So a 1GW discrepancy between prediction and reality.

The only question is whether that estimate was fined tuned in the hour before each timewindow (as is usually possible) and whether the estimate shown is the one done a day before, or the fine-tuned one. I would expect it to be the day-ahead one, but maybe not.

(or am I missing something from the definition of estimate and "telemetered" production?)

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 10:19:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
10.1GW was the eastimate. The real production was just about 9GW. So a 1GW discrepancy between prediction and reality.

Nope. The 9GW is the metered production, the 10.1GW estimate includes unmetered capacity. That's pretty good -- back when I first bookmarked this link years ago, the metered part was barely above 50% of the total capacity.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 10:24:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ok, thanks! Good to know.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 10:58:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean: telemetered means that outgoing electricity metered at the wind farms is beamed to REE in real-time.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Jan 12th, 2010 at 10:29:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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