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If that's the result of cutting taxes, not so much...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 05:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The tax cuts were 5 years ago and more.  The deficit would have been 15% of GDP without expenditure cuts and some tax increases.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 05:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then the policy is 3% less counter-cyclical than it could have been. And a lot more than it should have been :P

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 05:37:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would regard it more as an unwinding of the unsustainably pro-cyclical policies of the prior years - chiefly under McCreevy's regime, but also, to a lesser extent, during Cowen's tenure at Finance.  I don't think going back to a debt/GDP ration of c.100% is a good idea.  As it is we will go close unless there is a turnaround in the next couple of years.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 05:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(And that is before you take into account the 57 Billion of off balance sheet Nama funding).  Quite how the simple device of a special purpose vehicle can get around EU national accounting rules is difficult to fathom...

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 05:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's off-balance-sheet
Your imagination is the limit.
Wait, it gets better
Perhaps on the balance sheet of another company.
Usually on the balance sheet of a Special Purpose Entity (SPE).
Your company's shareholders perhaps know it, perhaps not.
LOL
do you mean "creative accounting"?
I prefer to call it "financial engineering".


En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently Eurostat think it is a great idea.  And the OECD loved our very innovative "long term economic value" concept for over-paying banks for their assets.  Apparently it was sufficiently vague to defy analysis which was the point of the exercise.

Anyway, you can't fault the Irish for not trying it on...

notes from no w here

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:32:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's just the same argument US banks used to get the US government to overpay for their assets. The idea is that if you just manage to ride out the storm until the sunny day when asset prices are back up to 'normal'...

So much pressure to reform accounting standards to reflect mark-to-market and it had to come to this...

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:37:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well when the market is "wrong" you just create a futures market in "hope".  Obama did it in politics as well.  You extract a current market premium by leveraging people's aspirations (or desperation) for the future.  It's a bit like selling the power from solar panels that will be generated from "sunny days" yet to come.  Jerome does it all the time in a windier way...

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
High unemployment (of people and plant) causes damage to the economy. If it goes on for a long time it causes permanent damage. Debt to GDP ratios be damned (assuming the debt is used to return the economy to a normal level of activity).

Once the economy starts recovering it will be time to reduce public spending and raise taxes by 3% and more, not while the economy is still in a nosedive.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:05:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
Debt to GDP ratios be damned (assuming the debt is used to return the economy to a normal level of activity)

Normally I would agree but:

  1. Much of the downturn was caused by unsustainable asset and cost inflation.  Assets have imploded.  Costs are only v. slowly returning to "normal"=sustainable levels.

  2. There comes a point at which huge budget deficits become self-reinforcing and unsustainable because the cost of borrowing goes up even more than the rate of borrowing because foreign lenders simply won't lend without increasing risk premia.  Irish public and private foreign debt is c. 800% GDP, so we are huge over-leveraged as it is.

  3.  Most of the down turn has been in the construction and tourism sectors.  Construction was c. 15% of GDP (if memory serves) and we were building houses at a rate c. 50% the level fro all of the UK.  Not only are many of those houses empty, office and factory vacant space is at record levels.  It is pointless trying to reflate that bubble just yet.  

As for tourists - for some unaccountable reason spaniards don't want to enjoy our weather in the same numbers as we enjoy yours. Thus most hotels are closing for lack of demand.theirs.  I suggest the EU force Spaniards to come and holiday here.  At the moment we just get your delinquent teenagers on so-called language courses...

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Thu Jan 14th, 2010 at 06:26:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't being totally serious last night but the answer to
I don't think going back to a debt/GDP ration of c.100% is a good idea.

...

Irish public and private foreign debt is c. 800% GDP, so we are huge over-leveraged as it is.

is that the Irish government didn't need to exhaust its fiscal capacity by guaranteeing all debt liabilities of all banks and throwing NAMA on top of that.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 04:14:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree guaranteeing subordinated debt was stupid but the Irish Government would argue that:

  1. No debt guarantees have been called in yet so at the moment this is not a fiscal drag

  2. Ireland's "responsible" attitude has boosted the confidence of international lenders in Irish Government debt generally and thus reduced borrowing costs

  3. The banks are paying c. 1 Billion p.a. as a fee for the guarantee

  4. All Nama funding will be off-balance sheet and not included in any "fiscal" national accounts - do not pass go and return to # 1 above...

Maybe I should get a job as a Government spokesman...

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 07:31:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you're going to argue that, then you can't use the 800% GDP total public and private debt as an argument against running a large deficit.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 08:15:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish Government are keeping very quiet on that...don't want to be compared to Iceland, now do we?

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 08:39:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference with Iceland is that you're in the Euro.

The question is whether the ECB can and will be a lender of last resort to Irish banks.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 09:57:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are many other differences as well - scale, size of GDP, diversity of infrastructure and industries, current level of public indebtedness.  Let's not become uni-factorial about this.  Just as the Celtic Tiger wasn't solely caused by EU subsidies or low corporate taxes, neither will Ireland's recovery now be solely down to the Euro or the ECB.  My argument with McWilliams is that I see it as a positive factor, whereas he sees it as a negative one.  Neither of us would claim it is the only factor.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 10:48:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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