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I agree guaranteeing subordinated debt was stupid but the Irish Government would argue that:

  1. No debt guarantees have been called in yet so at the moment this is not a fiscal drag

  2. Ireland's "responsible" attitude has boosted the confidence of international lenders in Irish Government debt generally and thus reduced borrowing costs

  3. The banks are paying c. 1 Billion p.a. as a fee for the guarantee

  4. All Nama funding will be off-balance sheet and not included in any "fiscal" national accounts - do not pass go and return to # 1 above...

Maybe I should get a job as a Government spokesman...

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 07:31:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you're going to argue that, then you can't use the 800% GDP total public and private debt as an argument against running a large deficit.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 08:15:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Irish Government are keeping very quiet on that...don't want to be compared to Iceland, now do we?

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 08:39:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference with Iceland is that you're in the Euro.

The question is whether the ECB can and will be a lender of last resort to Irish banks.

En un viejo país ineficiente, algo así como España entre dos guerras civiles, poseer una casa y poca hacienda y memoria ninguna. -- Gil de Biedma

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 09:57:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are many other differences as well - scale, size of GDP, diversity of infrastructure and industries, current level of public indebtedness.  Let's not become uni-factorial about this.  Just as the Celtic Tiger wasn't solely caused by EU subsidies or low corporate taxes, neither will Ireland's recovery now be solely down to the Euro or the ECB.  My argument with McWilliams is that I see it as a positive factor, whereas he sees it as a negative one.  Neither of us would claim it is the only factor.

notes from no w here
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Fri Jan 15th, 2010 at 10:48:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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